Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-pulse
Match Preview
The model favours Nagoya Grampus to win against Shimizu S-pulse, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Nagoya Grampus enters this match positioned 6th in the standings, but both teams have not yet played any matches this season. Their recent form shows a struggle with four losses in their last five matches, indicating a need for improvement. Despite this, they will be looking to turn the tide in their opening game of the season. On the other hand, Shimizu S-pulse is positioned 7th and also has yet to start their league campaign. Their recent form is slightly more encouraging, with two wins in their last five matches. This suggests they may have a better momentum heading into this fixture, albeit the results are from the previous season and may not directly influence the upcoming match. The model output indicates a win probability in favour of Nagoya Grampus, reflecting their home advantage and historical performance. However, one caveat is that the pressure of starting the season on a losing note could impact their performance negatively. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Nagoya Grampus manage games at home, conceding just 1.57 goals per match. Shimizu S-pulse score 1.19 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Shimizu S-pulse have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Nagoya Grampus clean sheets, in line with their 21% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Shimizu S-pulse are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-pulse| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.35 | 1.88 | 1.89 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.13 | 3.62 | 3.42 | 1.93 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 2.08 | 3.08 | 3.06 | 1.91 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.11 | 3.56 | 3.42 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.95 | |
| 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.07 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 2.10 | 3.45 | 3.50 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Nagoya Grampus leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Nagoya Grampus and Shimizu S-pulse, Nagoya Grampus has won 5 times, there have been 4 draws, and Shimizu S-pulse has won once. This record indicates a strong performance by Nagoya, particularly with several narrow victories, including three matches decided by a single goal. Shimizu's solitary win came in 2022, while the most recent encounters have seen Nagoya winning consistently, suggesting a trend of dominance. The frequency of draws and low-scoring matches, with four games ending 1-1 or 0-0, highlights a competitive edge with tight contests overall.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Kashima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Cerezo Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 8 | Shimizu S-pulse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 18 | Nagoya Grampus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  FC Tokyo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonNagoya Grampus have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 and drew with Machida Zelvia 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 12L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Shimizu S-pulse have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 and beat Karlsruher SC 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 9L from the last 27 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNagoya Grampus3-4-2-1Confirmed
Shimizu S-pulse4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersNagoya Grampus
No reported absences
Shimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Nagoya Grampus have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Shimizu S-pulse 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shimizu S-pulse have generated 1.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shimizu S-pulse player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
