Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors Prediction, Tips & Odds
Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors
Match Preview
The model favours Boca Juniors to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-0 against Newells Old Boys. Boca Juniors currently sits in second place in the Liga Profesional Argentina, boasting a strong season with eight wins, six draws, and just two losses from 16 matches. They have scored 22 goals while conceding only 9, giving them a goal difference of +13, which highlights their solid defensive capabilities as well as their attacking proficiency. On the other hand, Newells Old Boys finds themselves in a challenging position, currently ranked 14th with a record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses. Their goal tally stands at 15 for and 27 against, resulting in a goal difference of -12. While they have shown some improvement recently with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, their overall performance this season has not been strong enough to suggest they can contend effectively against a top team like Boca Juniors. The model gives Boca Juniors a significant win probability, reflecting their solid form and strong league position. However, a potential caveat is that Newells Old Boys could capitalize on any complacency from Boca, especially if they can leverage their recent unbeaten streak. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season to inform these projections.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Newells Old Boys have kept a clean sheet in 14% of matches. Boca Juniors average 1.3 goals per game.
Newells Old Boys manage games at home, conceding just 1.57 goals per match. Boca Juniors score 1.27 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.9% probability.
Boca Juniors have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Boca Juniors win as the most likely scoreline at 19.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Boca Juniors are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.40 | 3.05 | 1.93 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.15 | 1.62 | |
| 4.20 | 3.22 | 1.91 | 2.44 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 1.60 | |
| 4.33 | 3.10 | 1.91 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| 4.51 | 3.32 | 1.95 | 2.67 | 1.51 | — | — | |
| 3.78 | 2.96 | 1.97 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.00 | 3.00 | 1.91 | — | — | 2.15 | 1.65 | |
| 4.50 | 3.20 | 1.91 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 4.28 | 3.28 | 1.94 | 2.44 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 1.62 | |
| 4.10 | 3.15 | 2.00 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.08 | 1.66 | |
| 4.00 | 3.00 | 1.91 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.15 | 1.65 | |
Betano | 4.45 | 3.15 | 1.98 | 2.65 | 1.52 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
Superbet | 4.30 | 3.20 | 1.97 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.22 | 1.61 |
BetVictor | 4.50 | 3.20 | 1.90 | 2.42 | 1.48 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Boca Juniors leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Newells Old Boys and Boca Juniors, Boca Juniors leads with 7 wins, while Newells Old Boys has 2 victories and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency towards Boca Juniors' dominance, with several heavy wins, including a 5-0 victory. Newells Old Boys has managed to secure narrow wins, such as the 2-0 results in their favor, but overall, the matches have often favored Boca Juniors. Newells Old Boys last won against Boca Juniors in March 2025, highlighting a challenging trend for them in this fixture.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | WLLWD |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | WDLDW |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DLLWW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LLLWW |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WWLDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DLWDD |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | LLWDW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | DLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNewells Old Boys have won 2 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Boca Juniors 2-2 and beat Talleres Cordoba 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 7D 10L from the last 21 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Boca Juniors have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Boca Juniors 2-2 and lost to O'Higgins 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 8L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNewells Old Boys4-2-3-1Confirmed
Boca Juniors4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersNewells Old Boys
No reported absences
Boca Juniors
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Merlos has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Newells Old Boys have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Boca Juniors 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Boca Juniors have generated 1.72 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Boca Juniors player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
