PAOK vs Anderlecht Prediction, Tips & Odds
PAOK vs Anderlecht
Match Preview
The model favours PAOK to win against Anderlecht, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. PAOK has shown strong form recently, securing four wins in their last five matches. This momentum is crucial as they head into this knockout round, indicating a solid attacking and defensive balance that can be pivotal in high-stakes matches. On the other hand, Anderlecht also comes into this fixture with impressive form, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches, with four wins and one draw. Their consistency and ability to perform under pressure will be tested against a formidable opponent like PAOK, especially away from home. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for PAOK, reflecting their home advantage and recent form. However, a potential caveat for PAOK is the pressure of expectations in a knockout competition, which can sometimes lead to unexpected outcomes. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
PAOK have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 PAOK win as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature PAOK clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. PAOK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PAOK vs Anderlecht| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.61 | 3.85 | 5.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.93 | |
| 1.63 | 3.92 | 4.90 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 1.61 | 4.07 | 5.07 | 1.76 | 2.07 | — | — | |
| 1.54 | 3.50 | 4.72 | 1.89 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.70 | 4.08 | 5.09 | 1.81 | 2.09 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.64 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.74 | 1.94 | |
| 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.60 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 3.85 | 5.00 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.69 | 3.85 | 4.90 | 1.80 | 2.02 | 1.77 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Anderlecht leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record between PAOK and Anderlecht, Anderlecht leads with 1 win, while there have been no draws or wins for PAOK. The only match played resulted in a narrow 1-0 victory for Anderlecht. This scoreline indicates a tightly contested game, with PAOK unable to find the net. As it stands, PAOK has not won against Anderlecht in this matchup, highlighting a one-sided historical record, albeit with only a single fixture to consider.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonPAOK have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Brann 1-1 and lost to Anderlecht 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 8L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Anderlecht have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Anderlecht 0-3 and lost to SK Beveren 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 13L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPAOK
No reported absences
Anderlecht
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
PAOK have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Anderlecht 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PAOK have generated 1.44 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PAOK player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
