PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction, Tips & Odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Match Preview
The model favours PSV Eindhoven to win against Shakhtar Donetsk, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. PSV has shown a solid performance this season, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their recent form indicates a competitive edge, with a slight inconsistency marked by one draw and one loss, but they remain a formidable opponent at home. On the other hand, Shakhtar Donetsk enters this match in strong form, having won three and drawn two of their last five matches. This unbeaten streak reflects their resilience and ability to secure points. However, their performance in away matches could present challenges, especially against a determined PSV side. According to the model's output, the win probability for PSV Eindhoven stands at a notable percentage, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat is that if Shakhtar manages to maintain their unbeaten run, they could disrupt PSV's plans, particularly if they perform exceptionally well away from home. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model utilizing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
PSV Eindhoven have been the stronger side, winning 63% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 PSV Eindhoven win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature PSV Eindhoven clean sheets, in line with their 11% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. PSV Eindhoven are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.20 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.52 | 4.85 | 5.95 | 1.41 | 2.64 | 1.53 | 2.33 | |
| 1.50 | 4.75 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.53 | 2.50 | |
| 1.51 | 4.81 | 6.10 | 1.46 | 2.79 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.43 | 5.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.50 | 4.80 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.54 | 4.93 | 6.04 | 1.41 | 2.64 | 1.53 | 2.36 | |
| 1.49 | 4.90 | 5.75 | 1.41 | 2.95 | 1.54 | 2.43 | |
| 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.70 | 6.00 | 1.45 | 2.82 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
Superbet | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.70 | 1.47 | 2.70 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 1.43 | 2.56 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (PSV Eindhoven leads 1-0)In their only head-to-head encounter, PSV Eindhoven has won 1 match, while Shakhtar Donetsk has not secured any victories, resulting in no draws. The sole match ended with a score of 3-2 in favor of PSV, indicating a relatively tight contest despite the winning margin. This close scoreline suggests that while PSV emerged victorious, Shakhtar was competitive and capable of challenging their opponents. As it stands, Shakhtar has not won against PSV in this matchup, and the narrow score reflects the potential for evenly matched play in future encounters.
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 36 |  Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPSV Eindhoven have won 11 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat PSV Eindhoven 5-1 and lost to PSV Eindhoven 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 3D 7L from the last 27 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shakhtar Donetsk have won 10 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1-2 and beat FC Kharkiv 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 4D 5L from the last 28 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPSV Eindhoven
No reported absences
Shakhtar Donetsk
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
PSV Eindhoven average 2.9 goals per match at home; Shakhtar Donetsk 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
PSV Eindhoven have generated 2.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 63% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PSV Eindhoven player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.