Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction, Tips & Odds
Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split
Match Preview
The model favours Raków Częstochowa to win against HNK Hajduk Split, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Raków has shown a mixed bag of form recently, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. While this indicates some inconsistency, the team's ability to secure victories suggests they can compete effectively, especially on home turf. On the other hand, HNK Hajduk Split has also experienced similar fluctuations in form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five fixtures. This parity in recent performance hints at a competitive match, but Hajduk's slight struggles may impact their confidence going into this playoff match. The model's output indicates a strong probability for a Raków victory, but one caveat is that both teams have shown vulnerability in their recent outings, meaning a slip-up could lead to an upset. For further details on the methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Raków Częstochowa have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Raków Częstochowa are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.16 | 3.45 | 3.15 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 2.10 | 3.44 | 3.20 | 1.76 | 2.01 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.11 | 3.57 | 3.21 | 1.78 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.14 | 3.02 | 1.85 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.18 | 3.56 | 3.32 | 1.81 | 2.04 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
| 2.04 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.74 | 1.95 | 1.63 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.15 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Superbet | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split stands at one draw, with no wins for either team. Their only encounter ended in a 2-2 draw, indicating a tightly contested match where both sides managed to score twice. This result suggests that neither team has been able to assert dominance over the other in their limited history. With the scoreline reflecting a balanced matchup, it remains to be seen how future fixtures will unfold between these two clubs.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonRaków Częstochowa have won 8 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Raków Częstochowa 1-2 and beat Raków Częstochowa 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 11L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 and lost to NK Varazdin 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 4L from the last 15 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedRaków Częstochowa3-4-3Confirmed
HNK Hajduk Split4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersRaków Częstochowa
No reported absences
HNK Hajduk Split
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Aghayev has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Aghayev to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Raków Częstochowa have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; HNK Hajduk Split 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Raków Częstochowa have generated 2.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Raków Częstochowa player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.