Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka
Match Preview
The model favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win against Cerezo Osaka, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sanfrecce Hiroshima is currently positioned 4th in the J1 League, having made a solid start to their season with two wins and two draws from their first four matches. They have scored 8 goals while conceding only 2, resulting in a strong goal difference of +6. This defensive resilience, coupled with their ability to find the net, highlights their potential to secure points consistently. In contrast, Cerezo Osaka sits 10th in the standings, with a record of two wins and two losses so far this season. They have managed to score just 3 goals while allowing 5, resulting in a negative goal difference of -2. Their recent form has seen them win three of their last five matches, but their inconsistency could be a concern as they face a more solid opponent in Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Sanfrecce Hiroshima keeping a clean sheet, which is at 40%. However, a caveat exists; if Cerezo Osaka can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Hiroshima, they could pose a threat. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as explained by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.15 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 1.57 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.58 | 4.56 | 5.38 | 1.51 | 2.66 | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.19 | 4.83 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.59 | 4.40 | 5.27 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 1.56 | 4.20 | 4.80 | 1.44 | 2.55 | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
| 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.25 | 4.85 | 1.50 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 1.59 | 4.25 | 4.75 | 1.50 | 2.47 | 1.57 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.25 | 1.48 | 2.41 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sanfrecce Hiroshima leads 7-0)In their last 10 encounters, Sanfrecce Hiroshima has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in draws, while Cerezo Osaka has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a competitive edge for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, as they have consistently managed to win, often by narrow margins, such as 2-1 in three instances. Cerezo Osaka's inability to win is notable, and their last victory against Sanfrecce Hiroshima remains elusive. The matches have also featured a few low-scoring draws, suggesting that while Sanfrecce Hiroshima tends to find a way to win, the games can be tightly contested.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 9 | Cerezo Osaka | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 | DWLWL |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonSanfrecce Hiroshima have won 12 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 and beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 10L from the last 35 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cerezo Osaka have won 6 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vissel Kobe 1-0 and beat FC Tokyo 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 9L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSanfrecce Hiroshima3-4-2-1Confirmed
Cerezo Osaka3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSanfrecce Hiroshima
No reported absences
Cerezo Osaka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Cerezo Osaka 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have generated 1.80 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 6.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sanfrecce Hiroshima player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.