Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
Match Preview
The model favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win against Nagoya Grampus, with a projected scoreline of 3-1. Sanfrecce Hiroshima is currently positioned second in the J1 League, having won both of their opening matches of the season. Their strong start is highlighted by a remarkable goal difference of +6, scoring 7 goals while conceding only 1. This offensive prowess, combined with solid defensive performance, sets them up as formidable opponents. On the other hand, Nagoya Grampus finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 18th place, having lost both of their matches so far this season. Their struggles are evident, with only 1 goal scored and 3 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of -2. With five consecutive losses in their last five matches, the team is in desperate need of a turnaround to regain momentum. The model indicates a high win probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, reflecting their current form and league standing. However, Nagoya Grampus could pull off an upset if they manage to break their losing streak and find a way to strengthen their defence. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.75 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.15 | 1.43 | 2.48 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 1.47 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 1.51 | 4.83 | 5.94 | 1.45 | 2.83 | — | — | |
| 1.45 | 4.05 | 5.22 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.25 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.50 | 4.66 | 5.94 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 1.49 | 4.35 | 5.40 | 1.47 | 2.48 | 1.58 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.45 | 5.70 | 1.52 | 2.50 | 1.62 | 2.18 |
Superbet | 1.51 | 4.50 | 5.35 | 1.46 | 2.60 | 1.56 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.75 | 1.44 | 2.53 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 5-5)The head-to-head record between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Nagoya Grampus stands at 5 wins for each side with no draws in their last 10 matches. This balance indicates a competitive rivalry, with both teams demonstrating their ability to secure victories. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight encounters and a few higher-scoring matches, such as a 4-2 win and a 3-1 win for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, while Nagoya Grampus has also claimed narrow 2-1 victories. Overall, the absence of draws points to a clear tendency for both teams to find a winner in their matchups.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 14 | Nagoya Grampus | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonSanfrecce Hiroshima have won 12 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 and beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 10L from the last 35 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Nagoya Grampus have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 and lost to Consadole Sapporo 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 15L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSanfrecce Hiroshima3-4-2-1Confirmed
Nagoya Grampus3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSanfrecce Hiroshima
No reported absences
Nagoya Grampus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Nagoya Grampus 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have generated 1.80 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 6.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sanfrecce Hiroshima player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.