SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction, Tips & Odds
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Match Preview
The model favours SC Paderborn 07 to win against 1899 Hoffenheim, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Paderborn currently sits in 12th place in the Bundesliga, having played two matches this season with one draw and one loss. Their form has shown some resilience, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating they can compete effectively. Notably, they have only conceded one goal so far, highlighting their defensive stability. In contrast, Hoffenheim is struggling at 16th in the standings, having lost both of their opening matches and currently sitting on zero points. Their recent form is concerning, with only one win in their last five matches and a total of six goals conceded in just two games this season. This defensive frailty could be a significant factor in their ability to secure points moving forward. The model gives SC Paderborn a win probability of around 60%, with a projected score of 1-0. However, a potential caveat is that if Hoffenheim can find their scoring touch, they could pose a threat, especially considering their attacking capabilities shown earlier in the season. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which outlines the methodology used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
1899 Hoffenheim have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. 1899 Hoffenheim are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.30 | 4.40 | 1.72 | 1.38 | 2.76 | 1.43 | 2.62 | |
| 4.33 | 4.33 | 1.73 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 4.24 | 4.45 | 1.75 | 1.42 | 2.96 | — | — | |
| 3.92 | 3.96 | 1.70 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.70 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 4.00 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 4.41 | 4.51 | 1.76 | 1.38 | 2.76 | 1.43 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 4.55 | 4.30 | 1.75 | 1.45 | 2.82 | 1.45 | 2.62 |
BetVictor | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.70 | 1.39 | 2.69 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (1899 Hoffenheim leads 2-0)In the last four matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1899 Hoffenheim, Hoffenheim has two wins, Paderborn has none, and there have been two draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive but slightly favorable record for Hoffenheim, with their victories coming with a margin of three goals and a single goal, while Paderborn managed to hold Hoffenheim to a draw twice. Notably, Paderborn has not won any of these encounters since their promotion, revealing a challenge in finding success against Hoffenheim in recent meetings.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 16 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSC Paderborn 07 have won 4 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to SC Freiburg 0-1 and beat Fagiano Okayama 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 7D 3L from the last 18 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
1899 Hoffenheim have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to 1. FC Köln 3-2 and beat Erzgebirge Aue 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 9L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSC Paderborn 07
No reported absences
1899 Hoffenheim
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Daniel Schlager has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Daniel Schlager to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
SC Paderborn 07 average 1.8 goals per match at home; 1899 Hoffenheim 2.1 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
1899 Hoffenheim have generated 1.88 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. 1899 Hoffenheim player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
