Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka
Match Preview
The model favours Avispa Fukuoka to win against Shimizu S-pulse, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Both teams have had a challenging start to the season, currently sitting in the lower half of the J1 League standings. Avispa Fukuoka holds a slight edge in goal difference, scoring six goals while conceding six, which indicates a more potent attack compared to Shimizu, who have struggled offensively with just one goal in four matches. Shimizu S-pulse's season has been tough, as they currently occupy 16th position with only three points from four games. Their recent form shows two wins in the last five matches, but they have lost three times, highlighting their inconsistency and difficulty in finding the net. With a goal difference of -2, their defensive issues could be a concern against a team like Avispa that has shown the ability to score. On the other hand, Avispa Fukuoka, positioned just above Shimizu in 15th place, has also secured three points from four fixtures. Their recent form features one win, one draw, and three losses, but they have managed to score more goals than Shimizu. This offensive capability, coupled with their slightly better overall standing, suggests they may have the upper hand in this matchup. The model's output suggests a win probability of 55% for Avispa Fukuoka and highlights their potential to score multiple goals. However, both teams have struggled defensively, which could lead to an unpredictable match. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Shimizu S-pulse manage games at home, conceding just 1.19 goals per match. Avispa Fukuoka score 1.41 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.9% probability.
Shimizu S-pulse have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Shimizu S-pulse are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.50 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.87 | |
| 2.90 | 3.05 | 2.50 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.45 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 3.04 | 3.14 | 2.59 | 2.46 | 1.59 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.05 | 2.47 | 2.29 | 1.63 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.97 | 3.12 | 2.56 | 2.38 | 1.59 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
| 2.65 | 3.05 | 2.63 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 1.89 | 1.78 | |
| 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.45 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.90 | 3.05 | 2.52 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Superbet | 2.87 | 3.15 | 2.47 | 2.17 | 1.64 | 1.88 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.13 | 2.55 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Shimizu S-pulse leads 4-1)In their last nine encounters, Shimizu S-pulse has won four matches, Avispa Fukuoka has won one, and there have been four draws. The scorelines suggest a fairly competitive history, with several tight matches, including three draws and a notable 0-0 result. Shimizu S-pulse has demonstrated their ability to secure wins with a couple of 3-1 victories, while Avispa Fukuoka's sole win came in a close 3-2 match. The lack of victories for Avispa Fukuoka in recent meetings indicates a challenge in overcoming Shimizu S-pulse.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 17 | Shimizu S-pulse | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonShimizu S-pulse have won 4 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 and lost to Shimizu S-pulse 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 12L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Avispa Fukuoka have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kyoto Sanga 2-1 and lost to Kashima 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 13D 12L from the last 32 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedShimizu S-pulse4-2-3-1Confirmed
Avispa Fukuoka3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersShimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Avispa Fukuoka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shimizu S-pulse have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Avispa Fukuoka 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shimizu S-pulse have generated 1.15 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 2.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shimizu S-pulse player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
