Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba
Match Preview
The model favours Shimizu S-pulse to win this match against JEF United Chiba, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shimizu currently sits in 17th place in the J1 League standings, having secured just one win from their six matches. Despite their struggles, they have managed to score three goals while conceding seven, resulting in a goal difference of -4. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. On the other hand, JEF United Chiba is in a more precarious position, rooted at the bottom of the table in 20th place. They have only achieved one win so far this season and have lost five of their six matches, scoring five goals but conceding a troubling 15, leading to a goal difference of -10. Their recent form is concerning, with four consecutive losses and only one draw in their last five outings, indicating significant defensive issues. The model gives Shimizu S-pulse a win probability of approximately 60%, reflecting their slightly better form and standings. The projected score of 2-1 suggests a close contest, but a key caveat is that Shimizu's inconsistent performances could lead to an upset if they fail to convert their chances. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis was conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Shimizu S-pulse manage games at home, conceding just 1.19 goals per match. JEF United Chiba score 1.23 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Shimizu S-pulse have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Shimizu S-pulse win as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Shimizu S-pulse clean sheets, in line with their 16% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Shimizu S-pulse are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.45 | 2.11 | 1.68 | 1.93 | 1.76 | |
| 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.50 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| 1.84 | 3.54 | 4.78 | 2.22 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 1.87 | 3.18 | 3.57 | 1.96 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.40 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.50 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.85 | 3.48 | 4.57 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 3.35 | 4.35 | 2.12 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.60 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Shimizu S-pulse leads 3-1)In the last six matches between Shimizu S-pulse and JEF United Chiba, Shimizu S-pulse has won 3 times, drawn 2, and JEF United Chiba has won once. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, with two draws and a mix of narrow and moderate victories. Shimizu's wins include a 3-1 and a 2-0, suggesting they have had the upper hand in recent encounters, while JEF's sole victory was a tight 1-0 win. The last time JEF United Chiba triumphed was in May 2023, indicating a slight trend of Shimizu's dominance in recent fixtures.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 17 | Shimizu S-pulse | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonShimizu S-pulse have won 4 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 and lost to Shimizu S-pulse 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 12L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
JEF United Chiba have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kawasaki Frontale 4-2 and lost to FC Tokyo 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 17L from the last 30 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedShimizu S-pulse4-1-2-3Confirmed
JEF United Chiba4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersShimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
JEF United Chiba
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shimizu S-pulse have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; JEF United Chiba 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shimizu S-pulse have generated 1.15 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 2.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shimizu S-pulse player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
