Shimizu S-pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos
Match Preview
The model favours Yokohama F. Marinos to win against Shimizu S-pulse, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Yokohama F. Marinos enters this match with a solid recent form, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches, securing three wins and two draws. This momentum positions them well as they start the new season, indicating they have the capability to build on their previous successes. On the other hand, Shimizu S-pulse has had a mixed recent run, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to kick off the season strongly. While they have shown flashes of potential, the pressure to perform at home could be daunting, especially against a team that is currently in better form. The model output suggests a win probability favouring Yokohama F. Marinos, but with the caveat that early-season uncertainties can lead to unpredictable outcomes, especially given that both teams are entering the season without any points yet. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Shimizu S-pulse manage games at home, conceding just 1.14 goals per match. Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.70 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Shimizu S-pulse have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Shimizu S-pulse are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.75 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 2.24 | 3.25 | 3.14 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.52 | 3.32 | 2.95 | 2.04 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 2.34 | 3.05 | 2.65 | 2.03 | 1.81 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.29 | 3.32 | 3.22 | 1.99 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 1.94 | 1.74 | 1.73 | 1.96 | |
| 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Yokohama F. Marinos leads 6-1)In the last 10 encounters between Shimizu S-pulse and Yokohama F. Marinos, Yokohama has secured 6 wins, while Shimizu has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Yokohama to dominate, with several matches featuring significant margins, including a 5-1 victory and a 3-0 win. Shimizu's only victory came in a close 3-2 match, suggesting that while they can compete, they often struggle against Yokohama. The most recent draw occurred in 2026, but Shimizu has not won against Yokohama since 2025.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 6 |  Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 | WLW |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 18 |  Kyoto Sanga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 19 |  Urawa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonShimizu S-pulse have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 and drew with Shimizu S-pulse 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 11L from the last 29 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Yokohama F. Marinos have won 6 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 and drew with Shimizu S-pulse 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 13L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedShimizu S-pulse4-1-4-1Confirmed
Yokohama F. Marinos4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersShimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Yokohama F. Marinos
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shimizu S-pulse have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Yokohama F. Marinos 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shimizu S-pulse have generated 1.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shimizu S-pulse player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
