Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen
Match Preview
The model favours Sparta Rotterdam to win this match against Heerenveen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sparta currently sits in 11th position in the Eredivisie, having played five matches this season. Their record shows one win, two draws, and two losses, with a goal difference of zero, scoring and conceding nine goals each. Their recent form indicates a slight upward trend, as they have managed to secure four points from their last five matches. Heerenveen, on the other hand, is positioned just below Sparta in 12th place, also with five matches played. They have the same overall points as Sparta, with one win, two draws, and two losses. However, their goal difference is negative, having scored seven goals and conceded nine. This slight disadvantage in goal difference reflects their struggle to find consistent scoring opportunities, which could impact their performance in this fixture. The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a win probability of approximately 55% in this matchup. While the teams are closely matched in terms of points and recent form, Heerenveen's weaker goal difference raises concerns about their defensive capabilities. As always, the full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
Sparta Rotterdam have been the stronger side, winning 26% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sparta Rotterdam are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.38 | 3.72 | 2.60 | 1.33 | 2.81 | 1.33 | 2.98 | |
| 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 2.46 | 3.86 | 2.72 | 1.42 | 2.97 | — | — | |
| 2.29 | 3.35 | 2.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.62 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 2.45 | 3.84 | 2.68 | 1.33 | 2.81 | 1.33 | 3.04 | |
Betano | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.82 | 1.37 | 2.92 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.90 | 2.55 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.30 | 3.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sparta Rotterdam leads 4-3)In the last ten matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen, the record stands at 4 wins for Sparta, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Heerenveen. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, as evidenced by five matches ending with a one-goal margin. Notably, there have been three scoreless draws, highlighting a tendency for low-scoring fixtures. Sparta's recent match results include a significant 4-0 victory, but Heerenveen also has a 3-0 win in this sample, indicating both teams have had their share of dominant performances.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 | DLDWL |
| 12 | Heerenveen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDLDW |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSparta Rotterdam have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with PEC Zwolle 2-2 and drew with Utrecht 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 11L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Heerenveen have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Heerenveen 2-2 and beat Club Brugge KV 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 8L from the last 25 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSparta Rotterdam
No reported absences
Heerenveen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Robin Hensgens has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sparta Rotterdam have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Heerenveen 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sparta Rotterdam have generated 1.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 26% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sparta Rotterdam player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
