Union Santa Fe vs Lanus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
Match Preview
The model favours Union Santa Fe to secure a narrow victory over Lanus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Union Santa Fe currently sits in 8th place in the Liga Profesional standings, having accumulated 21 points from 16 matches. Their season has been a mixed bag, with five wins, six draws, and five losses. Notably, they have scored 24 goals while conceding 20, resulting in a positive goal difference of 4. Their recent form shows some improvement, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. On the other hand, Lanus occupies 6th place with 24 points, having played the same number of matches as Union Santa Fe. They have recorded six wins, six draws, and four losses this season. Their goal tally stands at 18 scored and 15 conceded, giving them a goal difference of 3. Despite their higher league position, Lanus's recent form has been inconsistent, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Union Santa Fe, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of both teams scoring, which is currently at 60%. However, the caveat is that if Lanus can tighten their defence and disrupt Union Santa Fe's attack, they could shift the outcome. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, the full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Union Santa Fe have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches. Lanus average 1.0 goals per game.
Union Santa Fe manage games at home, conceding just 1.29 goals per match. Lanus score 1.00 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.4% probability.
Union Santa Fe have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Union Santa Fe clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Union Santa Fe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Union Santa Fe vs Lanus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 1.45 | 2.10 | 1.65 | |
| 2.31 | 2.83 | 3.50 | 2.54 | 1.41 | 2.14 | 1.62 | |
| 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 2.50 | 2.91 | 3.46 | 2.76 | 1.49 | — | — | |
| 2.41 | 2.80 | 2.96 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.30 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.35 | 2.88 | 3.56 | 2.54 | 1.41 | 2.14 | 1.63 | |
| 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.45 | 2.12 | 1.64 | |
| 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
Betano | 2.40 | 2.87 | 3.50 | 2.67 | 1.50 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
Superbet | 2.37 | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.77 | 1.45 | 2.22 | 1.62 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.53 | 1.44 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Union Santa Fe leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Union Santa Fe and Lanus shows Union Santa Fe winning 3 matches, Lanus winning 2, and 5 matches ending in draws. This indicates a relatively balanced rivalry with a tendency for matches to be closely contested, as evidenced by the high number of draws. The scorelines reflect both competitive and low-scoring encounters, with several matches ending in draws and only a few decisive victories, such as Union Santa Fe's 3-0 win in July 2022. Lanus last won in August 2019, highlighting a period without victory against Union Santa Fe since then.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | WLWDL |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LLWLL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DWDLL |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LLLLL |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | DWWWL |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 24 | LLWLD |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 21 | WLDLW |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | WLLWD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LDLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUnion Santa Fe have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lanus 2-1 and lost to Independiente 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 8L from the last 24 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lanus have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Lanus 4-0 and lost to Instituto Cordoba 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 10L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedUnion Santa Fe4-1-3-2Confirmed
Lanus4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersUnion Santa Fe
No reported absences
Lanus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
N. Lamolina has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Union Santa Fe have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Lanus 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Union Santa Fe have generated 1.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Union Santa Fe player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
