Urawa vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Urawa vs Fagiano Okayama
Match Preview
The model favours Fagiano Okayama to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Fagiano Okayama currently sits in 13th place in the J1 League, having secured 4 points from their opening four matches. While their goal-scoring has been modest, with just 3 goals scored, they have shown defensive resilience, conceding only 4 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -1. On the other hand, Urawa is struggling in 17th place, with just 3 points from their first four games. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, with a record of 1 win and 3 losses. Urawa has scored 8 goals but has also conceded 13, leading to a goal difference of -5. This indicates vulnerabilities in their defense that Fagiano Okayama may exploit. The model outputs a win probability of 55% for Fagiano Okayama, suggesting a solid chance for them to take the points. However, Urawa could pose a threat if they manage to convert their attacking opportunities more effectively. For a detailed understanding of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Urawa have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Urawa are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Urawa vs Fagiano Okayama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.45 | 3.45 | 2.70 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 2.26 | 3.40 | 2.98 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.33 | 3.55 | 3.10 | 1.99 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 2.36 | 3.02 | 2.65 | 1.94 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.31 | 3.48 | 3.05 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.75 | 1.97 | 1.71 | 1.74 | 1.94 | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.70 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.27 | 3.35 | 3.00 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Urawa leads 2-1)In their last four encounters, Urawa has won 2 matches, Fagiano Okayama has won 1, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with Urawa securing narrow victories of 1-0 in two matches, while Fagiano Okayama's win was more decisive at 2-0. The drawn match ended in a 1-1 stalemate, showcasing that neither team has dominated recently. Fagiano Okayama's last win against Urawa came in June 2026, suggesting a challenging trend for them in this matchup. Overall, the results reflect a closely contested history with no clear dominance from either side.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 8 | Fagiano Okayama | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | WWLDW |
| 12 | Urawa | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 | WWWLL |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonUrawa have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Urawa 3-2 and beat Urawa 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 11L from the last 32 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fagiano Okayama have won 6 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Fagiano Okayama 1-2 and lost to Nagoya Grampus 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 14L from the last 34 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersUrawa
No reported absences
Fagiano Okayama
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Urawa have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Fagiano Okayama 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Urawa have generated 1.21 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Urawa player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
