Villarreal vs Levante Prediction, Tips & Odds
Villarreal vs Levante
Match Preview
The model favours Levante to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Villarreal. Levante currently sits in 10th place in the league, having secured 5 points from their first four matches. Their form has been relatively steady, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Key to their performance has been a balanced goal tally of 5 scored and 5 conceded, indicating a solid defensive structure despite being mid-table. On the other hand, Villarreal finds itself struggling in 16th position with just 2 points from their opening four games. Their season has been challenging, marked by two draws and two losses, culminating in a negative goal difference of -2. While they have managed to score 6 goals, they have conceded 8, which highlights defensive vulnerabilities that Levante could exploit. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Levante, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their better form and league standing. However, Villarreal's home advantage at Estadio de la Ceramica could pose a challenge for Levante, making this match less predictable. For a complete understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on an in-house model from The Daily Punt Analysis Team that utilises expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Villarreal have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Villarreal win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Villarreal clean sheets, in line with their 9% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Villarreal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Villarreal vs Levante| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.51 | 4.80 | 5.80 | 1.41 | 2.64 | 1.53 | 2.34 | |
| 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.53 | 4.88 | 5.71 | 1.47 | 2.81 | — | — | |
| 1.47 | 4.44 | 5.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.55 | 4.93 | 5.95 | 1.41 | 2.64 | 1.53 | 2.37 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.65 | 5.80 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.55 | 2.37 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.75 | 1.43 | 2.56 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Villarreal leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Villarreal and Levante, Villarreal has won 6 times, Levante has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Villarreal to dominate, with several heavy victories, including a notable 5-1 win and a 5-0 win. Levante's victories have been less frequent and include a 2-0 win, suggesting that when they win, it is often by a narrow margin. The draw occurred in a friendly match, further highlighting the competitive nature of their encounters. Overall, Villarreal's recent head-to-head record shows a clear advantage.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 |  Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 14 | Levante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 18 |  Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 | Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVillarreal have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Real Betis 1-2 and lost to Deportivo La Coruna 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 14L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Levante have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Malaga 0-0 and drew with Osasuna 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 12L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVillarreal
No reported absences
Levante
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Mateo Busquets Ferrer has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Mateo Busquets Ferrer to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Villarreal have averaged 7.2 corners per match at home; Levante 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Villarreal have generated 1.71 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Villarreal player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
