Vitoria vs Botafogo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vitoria vs Botafogo
Match Preview
The model favours a narrow victory for Botafogo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Vitoria. Botafogo currently sits in 8th place in the Serie A standings with 29 points from 20 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid offensive display, scoring 34 goals, which highlights their attacking capabilities. With three wins in their last five matches, they are showing form that suggests they can capitalize on Vitoria's defensive weaknesses. On the other hand, Vitoria is positioned 13th with 26 points from 21 matches. Their season has been inconsistent, with a goal difference of -9 indicating struggles at the back, having conceded 31 goals. Although they have managed two wins in their last five matches, their overall performance has been marked by more losses than wins, which could hinder their chances in this matchup. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Botafogo. While they are favoured to win, a potential caveat is Vitoria's home advantage, which could play a crucial role in their performance. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Vitoria have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Vitoria are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vitoria vs Botafogo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.22 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 2.26 | 3.14 | 3.22 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 2.33 | 3.27 | 3.35 | 2.04 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.09 | 3.04 | 2.04 | 1.82 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.33 | 3.23 | 3.31 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.23 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 1.98 | 1.79 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
| 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.45 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Botafogo leads 5-0)In the last 10 matches between Vitoria and Botafogo, the record stands at 0 wins for Vitoria, 5 draws, and 5 wins for Botafogo. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow victories for Botafogo, suggesting that Vitoria has struggled to secure wins. The most recent draw was a goalless affair, while the last time Vitoria won against Botafogo was not within this sample, highlighting their ongoing challenge against this opponent. With five draws in the last ten encounters, the matches have often been closely contested.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 30 | LDWDW |
| 12 | Vitoria | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 29 | LWLLL |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 22 | LLDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVitoria have won 15 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vitoria 4-0 and lost to Vitoria 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 7D 14L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Botafogo have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vitoria 1-0 and lost to Cienciano 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 12L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVitoria4-2-3-1Confirmed
Botafogo4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
13 playersVitoria7
Botafogo6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
P. Zanovelli has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by P. Zanovelli to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vitoria have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Botafogo 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vitoria have generated 0.94 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vitoria player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
