Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Tips & Odds
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
Match Preview
The model favours Fortuna Sittard to win against Willem II, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Fortuna Sittard is currently positioned fourth in the Eredivisie standings, having accumulated 10 points from five matches. Their season has been highlighted by a strong offensive display, scoring 11 goals while conceding 9, leading to a positive goal difference of 2. This form, including three wins in their last five matches, underscores their capability to secure points consistently. In contrast, Willem II finds themselves struggling in 16th place, with just 1 point from four matches. They have yet to secure a win this season, managing only one draw alongside three losses, resulting in a goal difference of -9. Their recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, but overall, they have struggled significantly in both attack and defense, which could be detrimental against a more resilient opponent like Fortuna. The model indicates that Fortuna Sittard has a strong probability of winning this match. However, an honest caveat is that inconsistencies in their defensive performance could allow Willem II to capitalize on any mistakes. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Willem II have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Willem II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.52 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.51 | 2.26 | 1.45 | 2.51 | |
| 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 2.63 | 3.74 | 2.59 | 1.62 | 2.40 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.55 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.60 | 3.71 | 2.58 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 1.46 | 2.53 | |
Betano | 2.62 | 3.65 | 2.52 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.50 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard stands at 3 wins for each team and 4 draws across their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither side establishing a clear dominance. The scorelines reflect a mixture of tight encounters and a few high-scoring draws, such as the notable 4-4 clash in 2018. Both teams have managed to secure narrow victories, but there have been no heavy wins in this sample, suggesting competitive matchups. The last win for either side was recent, with both teams claiming victories in the last two years.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 16 | Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWillem II have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Excelsior 0-3 and drew with Heerenveen 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 5L from the last 23 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fortuna Sittard have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Fortuna Sittard 2-3 and lost to Metz 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 3D 12L from the last 25 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedWillem II4-3-3Confirmed
Fortuna Sittard5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersWillem II
No reported absences
Fortuna Sittard
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Dennis Higler has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Dennis Higler to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Willem II have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Fortuna Sittard 3.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Willem II have generated 1.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 61% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Willem II player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
