Willem II vs Heerenveen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Willem II vs Heerenveen
Match Preview
The model favours Heerenveen to win against Willem II, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Heerenveen currently sits in 7th place in the Eredivisie standings, having secured 4 points from their opening two matches, with one win and one draw. Their goal difference of +1 indicates solid defensive and offensive play, having scored 3 goals while conceding only 2. This early form suggests they are building momentum as they look to challenge for higher positions in the league. On the other hand, Willem II is struggling at the bottom of the table in 17th place, without any points from their first two games. They have conceded 8 goals, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by a team like Heerenveen, which is currently in better form. Willem II's recent record shows a mixed bag, with two wins and two losses in their last five matches, but they will need to improve significantly to turn around their current situation. The model shows a win probability of around 60% for Heerenveen, while Willem II has a 20% chance of winning, with the remaining 20% accounting for a draw. A potential pitfall for Heerenveen could be complacency, as they may underestimate a struggling opponent. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Heerenveen have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Heerenveen win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Heerenveen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Willem II vs Heerenveen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.76 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 2.62 | |
| 3.85 | 4.15 | 1.75 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 4.02 | 4.25 | 1.81 | 1.47 | 2.79 | — | — | |
| 3.69 | 3.79 | 1.75 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.75 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 3.90 | 4.33 | 1.75 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 3.96 | 4.27 | 1.80 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.42 | 2.66 | |
| 3.95 | 3.90 | 1.77 | 1.48 | 2.63 | 1.43 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 4.00 | 4.45 | 1.82 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
Superbet | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.80 | 1.46 | 2.72 | 1.46 | 2.60 |
BetVictor | 3.90 | 4.10 | 1.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heerenveen leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Willem II and Heerenveen, the record shows Heerenveen with 5 wins, Willem II with 2 wins, and 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Heerenveen achieving several decisive victories, including a notable 4-2 win and a 4-4 draw in the KNVB Beker. While Willem II has managed to secure some wins, the overall trend leans towards Heerenveen, particularly with their recent 3-1 and 2-1 victories. The results suggest a competitive rivalry, but Heerenveen has had the upper hand in recent encounters.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 12 | Heerenveen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDLDW |
| 16 | Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWillem II have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Excelsior 0-3 and drew with Heerenveen 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 5L from the last 23 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heerenveen have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Heerenveen 2-2 and beat Club Brugge KV 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 8L from the last 25 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedWillem II4-2-3-1Confirmed
Heerenveen4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersWillem II7
Heerenveen2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. van der Laan has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. van der Laan to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Willem II have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Heerenveen 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Heerenveen have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heerenveen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
