1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Tips & Odds
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Match Preview
The model favours 1899 Hoffenheim to win against VfB Stuttgart, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hoffenheim currently sits in 14th place in the Bundesliga after one match, having scored two goals but conceded three. While their opening match resulted in a loss, their overall recent form shows they have managed two wins in their last five outings, indicating they can find the net. Their ability to score, even in defeat, could prove crucial against a struggling opponent. On the other hand, VfB Stuttgart is at the bottom of the table in 18th position, also with one match played. They have scored just once while conceding five goals, highlighting significant defensive issues. Their recent form, while similar to Hoffenheim with two wins in the last five matches, suggests inconsistency and vulnerability in their performances. The lack of a strong start to the season may weigh heavily on their confidence. Overall, the model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Hoffenheim, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is Hoffenheim's odds for a home win. However, it is important to consider that early-season dynamics can be unpredictable, and a lack of form from Hoffenheim or an unexpected resurgence from Stuttgart could change the outcome. The analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.2% probability.
VfB Stuttgart have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. VfB Stuttgart are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.34 | 4.10 | 2.77 | 1.29 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 3.34 | |
| 2.38 | 4.00 | 2.70 | 1.29 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 3.70 | |
| 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.79 | 1.34 | 3.31 | — | — | |
| 2.36 | 3.60 | 2.44 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 2.35 | 4.10 | 2.62 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 2.38 | 4.16 | 2.82 | 1.29 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 3.40 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 4.15 | 2.67 | 1.33 | 3.35 | 1.30 | 3.30 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 4.10 | 2.63 | 1.29 | 3.60 | 1.25 | 3.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart stands at 2 wins for Hoffenheim, 6 draws, and 2 wins for Stuttgart over the last 10 matches. This indicates a notably competitive rivalry, with a majority of encounters ending in draws, suggesting closely contested fixtures. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests, with five matches ending in draws and only one match featuring a heavy win (Stuttgart's 3-0 victory). Hoffenheim's last win against Stuttgart occurred in February 2022, while Stuttgart has not secured a win in the last four meetings, indicating a recent trend of parity.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 16 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season1899 Hoffenheim have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Borussia Dortmund 2-3 and beat Karlsruher SC 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 9L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
VfB Stuttgart have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Bayern München 5-1 and beat Hansa Rostock 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 9L from the last 32 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Confirmed1899 Hoffenheim4-4-2Confirmed
VfB Stuttgart3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 players1899 Hoffenheim
No reported absences
VfB Stuttgart
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
1899 Hoffenheim have averaged 11.0 corners per match at home; VfB Stuttgart 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 9.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
VfB Stuttgart have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. VfB Stuttgart player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
