1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Tips & Odds
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Match Preview
The model favours 1899 Hoffenheim to win against VfB Stuttgart, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hoffenheim currently sits in 14th place in the Bundesliga after one match, having scored two goals but conceded three. While their opening match resulted in a loss, their overall recent form shows they have managed two wins in their last five outings, indicating they can find the net. Their ability to score, even in defeat, could prove crucial against a struggling opponent. On the other hand, VfB Stuttgart is at the bottom of the table in 18th position, also with one match played. They have scored just once while conceding five goals, highlighting significant defensive issues. Their recent form, while similar to Hoffenheim with two wins in the last five matches, suggests inconsistency and vulnerability in their performances. The lack of a strong start to the season may weigh heavily on their confidence. Overall, the model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Hoffenheim, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is Hoffenheim's odds for a home win. However, it is important to consider that early-season dynamics can be unpredictable, and a lack of form from Hoffenheim or an unexpected resurgence from Stuttgart could change the outcome. The analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.2% probability.
1899 Hoffenheim have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. 1899 Hoffenheim are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.34 | 4.10 | 2.77 | 1.29 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 3.34 | |
| 2.38 | 4.00 | 2.70 | 1.29 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 3.70 | |
| 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.79 | 1.34 | 3.31 | — | — | |
| 2.36 | 3.60 | 2.44 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 2.35 | 4.10 | 2.62 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 2.38 | 4.16 | 2.82 | 1.29 | 3.32 | 1.28 | 3.40 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 4.15 | 2.67 | 1.33 | 3.35 | 1.30 | 3.30 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 4.10 | 2.63 | 1.29 | 3.60 | 1.25 | 3.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart stands at 2 wins for Hoffenheim, 6 draws, and 2 wins for Stuttgart over the last 10 matches. This indicates a notably competitive rivalry, with a majority of encounters ending in draws, suggesting closely contested fixtures. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests, with five matches ending in draws and only one match featuring a heavy win (Stuttgart's 3-0 victory). Hoffenheim's last win against Stuttgart occurred in February 2022, while Stuttgart has not secured a win in the last four meetings, indicating a recent trend of parity.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | LWLL |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season1899 Hoffenheim have won 9 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 and lost to 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 11L from the last 31 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
VfB Stuttgart have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 and lost to Bayern München 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 11L from the last 36 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Confirmed1899 Hoffenheim4-4-2Confirmed
VfB Stuttgart3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 players1899 Hoffenheim1
VfB Stuttgart7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
1899 Hoffenheim have averaged 11.0 corners per match at home; VfB Stuttgart 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 9.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
1899 Hoffenheim have generated 1.88 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. 1899 Hoffenheim player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
