AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction, Tips & Odds
AC Milan vs Benfica
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win against AC Milan, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Benfica enters the match with a strong foundation, having finished the previous season in a commendable fourth position. Their recent form underscores their momentum, with five consecutive wins culminating in a solid finish. This streak reflects their attacking prowess, which may carry over into this new season. In contrast, AC Milan, currently ranked 23rd in the standings, has yet to play a competitive match this season. Their form heading into the match shows mixed results, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. While they have shown resilience, the lack of recent competitive fixtures could hinder their ability to perform at peak levels right away. According to the model, Benfica has a higher win probability, with the projected score suggesting they will find success in this encounter. However, one caveat is that AC Milan could surprise if they manage to leverage home advantage effectively. The full methodology employed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team incorporates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, providing a comprehensive view of the contest.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AC Milan vs Benfica| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.35 | 3.58 | 3.06 | 1.75 | 2.11 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 2.33 | 3.57 | 3.09 | 1.76 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 2.04 | 3.12 | 2.96 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.33 | 3.58 | 3.10 | 1.76 | 2.16 | 1.57 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.05 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Benfica leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Benfica, Benfica has won 1 match, while AC Milan has not secured any wins or draws. The lone fixture ended with Benfica defeating AC Milan 1-0 in the International Champions Cup in July 2019. This result indicates a tight contest, with Benfica managing a narrow victory. Since there has only been one match played, it is difficult to draw broader conclusions about their historical rivalry, but Benfica currently holds the advantage in this specific encounter.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Anderlecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Ararat-Armenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDWW |
| 5 |  Beşiktaş | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | AC Milan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 |  Torreense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Union St. Gilloise | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 |  Plzen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAC Milan have won 4 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat AC Milan 2-0 and drew with AC Milan 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 8L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Benfica have won 7 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Benfica 0-3 and beat Aarhus 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 5D 4L from the last 29 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAC Milan3-4-2-1Confirmed
Benfica4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAC Milan
No reported absences
Benfica
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Gillett has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Gillett to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AC Milan have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Benfica 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 2.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 69% of them. They put 8.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.