Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Nassr to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting at the top of the Pro League standings, Al-Nassr has made a strong start to the season with two wins from two matches, scoring seven goals while maintaining a perfect defensive record, having not conceded any goals. Their goal difference of +7 is a critical indicator of their attacking prowess and defensive resilience. In contrast, Al-Ittihad FC is positioned seventh with four points from their two matches, featuring one win and one draw. They have scored two goals and conceded one, reflecting a more modest offensive output and defensive stability compared to their opponents. While they are unbeaten this season, their form is characterized by a mix of results, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a struggle to convert performances into decisive wins. The model output suggests a win probability favouring Al-Nassr, reflecting their strong early season form and goal-scoring ability. However, a potential caveat is that if Al-Ittihad can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Al-Nassr, they could secure an unexpected result. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Al-Nassr have been the stronger side, winning 76% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Al-Nassr win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Al-Nassr are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.53 | 1.38 | 3.00 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 5.05 | 4.60 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.46 | 2.45 | |
| 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.50 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 5.38 | 5.04 | 1.49 | 1.37 | 3.05 | — | — | |
| 4.50 | 4.03 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.80 | 4.40 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.45 | |
| 4.75 | 4.33 | 1.48 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 5.24 | 4.77 | 1.49 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.46 | 2.50 | |
| 5.10 | 4.40 | 1.47 | 1.34 | 3.10 | 1.42 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 5.00 | 4.70 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 2.95 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Superbet | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.55 | 1.41 | 2.95 | 1.49 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 5-5)The head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr stands at 5 wins for each side with no draws in their last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being tightly contested; however, there have been instances of heavy wins, such as Al-Nassr's 5-2 victory and Al-Nassr's 4-2 win. The matches have generally produced a mix of narrow victories and some high-scoring encounters, reflecting the evenly matched nature of these teams. Notably, both clubs have shared the spoils in terms of victories, showcasing a balanced historical contest.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Al-Ittihad FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Al-Nassr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  NEOM | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Al-Ettifaq | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | DWLLW |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 17 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Ittihad FC have won 9 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Al-Fayha 2-1 and beat Al-Nassr 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 8L from the last 31 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al-Nassr have won 12 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al-Nassr 2-1 and beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 1D 6L from the last 29 games (76% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAl-Ittihad FC4-4-2Confirmed
Al-Nassr4-4-1-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Ittihad FC
No reported absences
Al-Nassr
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Ittihad FC have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Al-Nassr 8.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Nassr have generated 1.68 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 76% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Nassr player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.