Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al-Ahli Jeddah currently sits in fourth place in the Pro League standings, having won both of their opening matches this season. With five goals scored and none conceded, their defensive solidity has been a standout aspect of their performance, giving them a strong goal difference of five. Their recent form also indicates consistency, with three wins in their last five matches, despite a recent draw. On the other hand, Al-Qadisiyah FC is positioned fifth, having played one more match than Al-Ahli Jeddah. They have secured two wins and suffered one loss, scoring five goals and conceding two for a goal difference of three. While they have shown promise, their recent form shows some inconsistency with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. This might affect their confidence heading into this matchup against a strong opponent. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for Al-Ahli Jeddah, with a key market indicator showing a 60% chance of them winning. However, a potential caveat is that Al-Qadisiyah FC may capitalize on any defensive lapses from Al-Ahli Jeddah, which could lead to a closer contest than anticipated. For more details on how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilized an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.4% probability.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Al-Qadisiyah FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 1.95 | 3.44 | 3.26 | 1.55 | 2.17 | 1.50 | 2.34 | |
| 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.10 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 2.06 | 3.71 | 3.37 | 1.65 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 1.98 | 3.38 | 3.05 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.02 | 3.56 | 3.38 | 1.60 | 2.24 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.86 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.46 | 2.48 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.57 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 1.50 | 2.45 |
Superbet | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.13 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Al-Ahli Jeddah leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah, Al-Qadisiyah has won 3 times, drawn 2, and lost 5. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested, including a high-scoring 3-3 draw and a narrow 3-2 win for Al-Qadisiyah. However, Al-Ahli Jeddah has recorded some significant victories, including a 5-1 win and a 4-1 win, showcasing their ability to dominate at times. Overall, while the matches have seen a mix of outcomes, Al-Ahli holds a slight edge in the head-to-head record.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Al-Nassr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  NEOM | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Al-Ettifaq | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | DWLLW |
| 7 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 9 | LWLLW |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 17 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Qadisiyah FC have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 and beat Al-Faisaly FC 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 3L from the last 27 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 and lost to Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 5D 8L from the last 34 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAl-Qadisiyah FC3-4-2-1Confirmed
Al-Ahli Jeddah4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Qadisiyah FC
No reported absences
Al-Ahli Jeddah
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Qadisiyah FC have averaged 6.8 corners per match at home; Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Qadisiyah FC have generated 2.66 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 6.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Qadisiyah FC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.