Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha
Match Preview
The model favours Al Shabab to win against Al-Fayha, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al Shabab currently sits in 13th place in the Pro League, having played three matches this season with a record of two draws and one loss. They have scored four goals but conceded six, resulting in a goal difference of -2. Their recent form shows a mix of results, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating some potential for improvement. On the other hand, Al-Fayha is struggling at the bottom of the league in 16th place. They have yet to secure a win this season, recording one draw and two losses from their three games. Their goal-scoring has been a significant issue, with only one goal scored and five conceded, leading to a goal difference of -4. Their recent form reflects ongoing difficulties, managing just one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches, which highlights their challenges in both attack and defense. The model gives Al Shabab a higher win probability, reflecting their slightly better position and form. However, it is important to note that both teams are still early in the season, and unexpected outcomes can occur. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Al Shabab winning, as they have shown some resilience despite their struggles. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, please check the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Al Shabab have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Al Shabab win as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Al Shabab clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Al Shabab are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.52 | 4.15 | 4.75 | 1.49 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 2.19 | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.58 | 4.46 | 4.98 | 1.56 | 2.45 | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 3.89 | 4.48 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 3.90 | 4.40 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.58 | 4.30 | 4.92 | 1.49 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 2.23 | |
| 1.58 | 3.80 | 4.75 | 1.67 | 2.14 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
| 1.57 | 3.80 | 4.40 | 1.53 | 2.25 | 1.60 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.20 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.10 | 4.80 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Al Shabab leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha, Al Shabab has won 8 times, with 1 draw and Al-Fayha winning just once. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, as Al Shabab often secured narrow victories, highlighted by several 1-0 and 2-1 results. The lone win for Al-Fayha came in a high-scoring 3-2 match, suggesting that while they can compete, Al Shabab has predominantly controlled these encounters. Notably, Al-Fayha has not won against Al Shabab since March 2024, further emphasizing the latter's dominance in this matchup.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Al-Nassr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  NEOM | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Al-Ettifaq | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Al-Fayha | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 15 | Al Shabab | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | LDDDL |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 17 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl Shabab have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-2 and drew with Al Riyadh 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 9D 10L from the last 27 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Al-Fayha have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al-Fayha 2-1 and drew with Al Taawon 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 13L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl Shabab
No reported absences
Al-Fayha
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al Shabab have averaged 6.2 corners per match at home; Al-Fayha 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al Shabab have generated 1.48 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al Shabab player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.