Alaves vs Getafe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Alaves vs Getafe
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win against Getafe, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Alaves starts the season in a promising position, currently ranked 4th, albeit with no points yet due to the season just beginning. Their recent form shows a strong finish to last season, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This momentum could be crucial as they look to build on their previous successes. Getafe, sitting in 7th place, also comes into this match with the same season record of zero points. Their recent form has been slightly less consistent, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Although they are competitive, they may struggle to replicate their previous successes against a well-prepared Alaves side. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Alaves, with the projected score being 2-1. One area of concern is that both teams are starting fresh this season, and early match jitters could impact performance. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains the method used, which combines expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches. Getafe average 0.9 goals per game.
Alaves manage games at home, conceding just 1.48 goals per match. Getafe score 0.86 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 20.2% probability.
Alaves have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Alaves win as the most likely scoreline at 20.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Alaves clean sheets, in line with their 20% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Alaves are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Alaves vs Getafe| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.30 | 2.70 | 3.75 | 3.00 | 1.38 | 2.35 | 1.55 | |
| 2.44 | 2.85 | 3.68 | 3.04 | 1.32 | 2.41 | 1.50 | |
| 2.40 | 2.75 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 1.33 | 2.30 | 1.57 | |
| 2.46 | 2.84 | 3.64 | 3.35 | 1.33 | — | — | |
| 2.36 | 2.78 | 3.35 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 2.75 | 3.50 | — | — | 2.30 | 1.57 | |
| 2.38 | 2.75 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 1.33 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 2.48 | 2.90 | 3.74 | 3.04 | 1.32 | 2.41 | 1.51 | |
| 2.30 | 2.70 | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.34 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 2.30 | 2.75 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.38 | 1.57 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 2.82 | 3.55 | 3.20 | 1.38 | 2.40 | 1.53 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.87 | 1.35 | 2.40 | 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Getafe leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Alaves and Getafe, Alaves has won 1, there have been 5 draws, and Getafe has won 4. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws, highlighting a tendency for closely contested matches. While Getafe has secured more victories, many matches were low-scoring, with six fixtures ending in either a 0-0 or 1-0 result. Alaves last won against Getafe in May 2024, suggesting a challenging stretch for them in this matchup. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a balanced contest, albeit slightly favoring Getafe.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 3 |  Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | LW |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 18 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAlaves have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Alaves 3-0 and drew with Alaves 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 8L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Getafe have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Getafe 3-0 and drew with Tottenham 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 11L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAlaves4-4-2Confirmed
Getafe3-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersAlaves5
Getafe2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Orellana has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Orellana to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Alaves have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Getafe 1.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Alaves have generated 1.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Alaves player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
