Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Alaves vs Osasuna
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win this match against Osasuna with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Alaves currently sits in a strong position at 2nd in the standings, having secured 4 points from their first two matches, featuring 1 win and 1 draw. They have scored 4 goals and conceded only 1, resulting in a goal difference of +3. Their recent form is impressive, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating solid momentum as they enter this fixture. Conversely, Osasuna is struggling, positioned at 16th without having played any matches yet this season. Their last five matches show a mixed bag of form, with three wins but also two losses, suggesting inconsistency. The lack of competitive play this season leaves them at a disadvantage, as they have yet to establish rhythm or cohesion on the pitch. The model output indicates a high win probability for Alaves, reflecting their solid start to the season. However, a potential caveat could be the risk of complacency or pressure to perform at home, which might affect their execution. For more details on how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Alaves manage games at home, conceding just 1.40 goals per match. Osasuna score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Alaves have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Alaves clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Alaves are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Alaves vs Osasuna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.24 | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.05 | 1.73 | |
| 2.33 | 3.14 | 3.52 | 2.49 | 1.55 | 2.03 | 1.70 | |
| 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.34 | 3.12 | 3.57 | 2.51 | 1.56 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 2.85 | 3.08 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.40 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.37 | 3.19 | 3.58 | 2.57 | 1.60 | 2.03 | 1.72 | |
| 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.43 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
Superbet | 2.30 | 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.52 | 1.53 | 2.10 | 1.71 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 3.40 | 2.29 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Osasuna leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Alaves and Osasuna, the head-to-head record shows Alaves winning 3 times, Osasuna winning 4 times, and 3 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a relatively competitive rivalry, with several closely contested fixtures, as seen in the 2-2 draws and the 1-1 stalemates. However, Osasuna has managed a couple of heavier wins, notably a 3-0 victory. Alaves' last win against Osasuna came in a friendly in August 2024, while their most recent competitive encounter in October 2023 ended in a 0-2 loss for Alaves.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 |  Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 | LLWWD |
| 18 |  Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAlaves have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Alaves 5-2 and beat Alaves 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 9L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Osasuna have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Alaves 5-2 and beat Celta Vigo 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 13L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersAlaves3
Osasuna3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Alaves have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Osasuna 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Alaves have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Alaves player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
