Alaves vs Valencia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Alaves vs Valencia
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win against Valencia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Alaves currently sits in second place in La Liga, having played four matches with an impressive record of three wins and one draw, resulting in a total of 10 points. Their goal difference of +7 highlights their offensive strength, scoring 10 goals while conceding only 3. This strong start to the season underscores their solid form, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches. In contrast, Valencia has struggled significantly this season, languishing at the bottom of the table in 20th place. They have yet to secure a win, managing only one draw from their four matches, with their sole goal scored being overshadowed by 9 goals conceded. Their recent form is concerning, with four losses and one draw in their last five matches, indicating a team in dire need of a turnaround. The model gives Alaves a win probability of approximately 70%, with a projected score of 2-0. One key market percentage to note is their home advantage, which often boosts performance. However, a potential pitfall for Alaves could be complacency, as they face a struggling Valencia side. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Alaves manage games at home, conceding just 1.40 goals per match. Valencia score 1.28 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Alaves have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Alaves win as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Alaves clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Alaves are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Alaves vs Valencia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.71 | 3.60 | 5.55 | 2.07 | 1.77 | 1.96 | 1.75 | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.50 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 1.70 | 3.69 | 5.76 | 2.10 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.36 | 4.53 | 2.12 | 1.77 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.75 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.76 | 3.70 | 5.70 | 2.15 | 1.81 | 1.96 | 1.77 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.60 | 5.70 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.75 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Alaves leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Alaves and Valencia, Alaves has won 5 times, Valencia has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories, including four matches decided by a single goal. Notably, Alaves has had success in recent encounters, winning 5 of the last 6, while Valencia's last win against Alaves came in August 2021. The overall pattern suggests a mix of close contests and occasional dominant performances, but Alaves currently holds an edge in this matchup.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 |  Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 17 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 | WLLLL |
| 18 |  Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAlaves have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Alaves 5-2 and beat Alaves 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 9L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Valencia have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 and drew with Stoke City 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 15L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersAlaves3
Valencia8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Alaves have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Valencia 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Alaves have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Alaves player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
