Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction, Tips & Odds
Alaves vs Villarreal
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win against Villarreal, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Alaves starts the season in a promising position at 4th in the standings, despite having no points yet as all teams are yet to play. Their recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they transition into the new season. On the other hand, Villarreal finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 20th place, also with no points from their yet-to-be-played matches. However, their recent form is slightly more encouraging, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This suggests they could bounce back quickly, although they will need to translate that form into the new season effectively. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Alaves and 20% for Villarreal, with the remaining 15% likely resulting in a draw. A key market to watch is the predicted total goals, which suggests a competitive match. One caveat to consider is that both teams are entering the season without any competitive fixtures yet, which could lead to unpredictable performances. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Alaves have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Alaves are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Alaves vs Villarreal| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 3.08 | 3.55 | 2.35 | 1.82 | 2.01 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.10 | 3.66 | 2.29 | 1.84 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.12 | 2.24 | 1.82 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.13 | 3.60 | 2.39 | 1.88 | 2.07 | 1.63 | 2.17 | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.33 | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.35 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 1.93 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Villarreal leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal shows 3 wins for Alaves, 3 draws, and 4 wins for Villarreal over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive fixtures, with several matches ending in draws and a few narrow victories. Notably, there have been three matches with a scoreline of 1-1, suggesting a tendency for closely contested games. However, Villarreal has also recorded heavy wins, including a 5-2 result, highlighting their ability to dominate at times. Alaves has not beaten Villarreal in their last four encounters, with their last victory coming over two years ago.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | LW |
| 6 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 18 |  Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 | LD |
| 19 |  Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAlaves have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Alaves 3-0 and beat Alaves 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 8L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Villarreal have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Villarreal 2-2 and beat Galatasaray 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 10L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAlaves
No reported absences
Villarreal
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Alaves have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Villarreal 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Alaves have generated 1.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Alaves player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
