Athletic Club vs Alaves Prediction, Tips & Odds
Athletic Club vs Alaves
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win this matchup with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Alaves currently sits in second place in La Liga, having played four matches this season and securing three wins and one draw. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, with 10 goals scored while conceding only three, resulting in a strong goal difference of plus seven. This solid form is reflected in their unbeaten start to the season, which has contributed to their impressive points tally of 10. On the other hand, Athletic Club finds themselves in ninth position, having played the same number of matches but only managing two wins against two losses. Their goal difference of plus one indicates a more balanced but less effective scoring and defensive record compared to Alaves. With six points from their four games, Athletic Club will need to improve their consistency if they hope to challenge for a higher position in the standings. The model output gives Alaves a win probability of approximately 60%, while the projected score suggests a closely contested match. However, Athletic Club could exploit home advantage, which may shift the dynamics of the game. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Athletic Club have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Athletic Club win as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Athletic Club clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Athletic Club are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Athletic Club vs Alaves| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 4.00 | 5.45 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
| 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.65 | 4.03 | 5.69 | 1.88 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 1.63 | 3.41 | 4.55 | 1.93 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.95 | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.25 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.68 | 4.11 | 5.60 | 1.94 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 4.05 | 5.40 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Athletic Club leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Athletic Club and Alaves, Athletic Club has won 5 times, with 3 draws and 2 victories for Alaves. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, though Athletic Club has had the upper hand with more wins. Notably, Athletic Club's victories have often been by narrow margins, with four matches ending in 1-0 or 2-0 scores. Alaves' last win against Athletic Club came in September 2025, suggesting a challenging period for them in this fixture. The presence of three draws also highlights that matches between these teams can be closely contested.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 |  Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | DWWLL |
| 18 |  Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAthletic Club have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Elche 1-1 and beat Atletico Madrid 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 16L from the last 35 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Alaves have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Alaves 2-1 and drew with Alaves 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 9L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAthletic Club
No reported absences
Alaves
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Victor Garcia Verdura has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Victor Garcia Verdura to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Athletic Club have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Alaves 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Athletic Club have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Athletic Club player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
