Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico Madrid to win against Osasuna, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Atletico currently sits in 6th place with 7 points from 4 matches, managing 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their goal difference stands at +1, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. The team's recent form shows they have secured three wins in their last five matches, indicating a slight upward trend as they look to solidify their position in the top half of the table. Osasuna, in 8th place and also on 7 points from 4 games, shares a similar record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. However, their goal difference of -1, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded, suggests they may be struggling defensively compared to their opponents. In their last five matches, Osasuna has recorded just 2 wins, coupled with 2 losses, which could indicate inconsistency as they aim to climb higher in the standings. The model output gives Atletico Madrid a solid win probability, reflecting their stronger recent form and home advantage. However, a potential caveat is that if Osasuna can tighten their defense and capitalize on counter-attacks, they could pose a challenge. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines our in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Atletico Madrid have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Atletico Madrid win as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Atletico Madrid clean sheets, in line with their 18% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atletico Madrid are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.42 | 4.85 | 8.20 | 1.79 | 2.05 | 2.09 | 1.66 | |
| 1.36 | 4.60 | 9.00 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.41 | 4.86 | 8.70 | 1.81 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.27 | 6.66 | 1.72 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.38 | 4.50 | 9.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.44 | 4.93 | 8.30 | 1.84 | 2.12 | 2.09 | 1.68 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.78 | 2.07 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.80 | 9.00 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atletico Madrid leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna, Atletico Madrid has won 8 times, while Osasuna has secured 2 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally dominant performance by Atletico, with several narrow victories, such as 1-0 on multiple occasions. However, Osasuna's two wins include a significant 4-1 victory, suggesting they can compete at a high level. Overall, Atletico's consistent winning record highlights their superiority in this matchup, while Osasuna's last win against Atletico came over a year ago, reflecting a challenging trend for them in recent encounters.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 | LLWWD |
| 18 |  Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico Madrid have won 9 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Atletico Madrid 2-2 and beat Atletico Madrid 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 15L from the last 34 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Osasuna have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Alaves 5-2 and beat Celta Vigo 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 13L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAtletico Madrid4-4-2Confirmed
Osasuna5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersAtletico Madrid4
Osasuna4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atletico Madrid have averaged 5.8 corners per match at home; Osasuna 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico Madrid have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico Madrid player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
