Austin vs FC Dallas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Austin vs FC Dallas
Match Preview
The model favours FC Dallas to win against Austin, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 6th in the standings, FC Dallas has shown a solid season form with 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses across 18 matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident, having netted 32 goals, while their defense has allowed 25, resulting in a positive goal difference of 7. The team's recent form has also been encouraging, with two wins in their last five matches. In contrast, Austin finds themselves struggling in 14th place with a record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses. Their offensive output has been limited, scoring only 22 goals and conceding 36, which contributes to a goal difference of -14. Austin's last five matches reflect their challenges, with only two wins in that span, indicating inconsistency and difficulty in finding form. The model assigns a win probability of 41.2% for FC Dallas, while Austin's chances stand at 33.6%. Additionally, there is a 59.8% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. A potential caveat for FC Dallas is their recent tendency to draw matches, which could allow Austin an opportunity to capitalize if they can improve their performance. The full methodology behind these predictions is available in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
FC Dallas have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Dallas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Austin vs FC Dallas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.84 | 3.50 | 2.32 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.28 | 1.66 | 2.18 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.99 | 3.63 | 2.36 | 1.70 | 2.24 | — | — | |
| 2.76 | 3.40 | 2.31 | 1.67 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.38 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.28 | 1.50 | 2.43 | |
| 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.90 | 3.55 | 2.37 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 1.64 | 2.09 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Dallas leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Austin and FC Dallas, FC Dallas has won 5 times, Austin has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a mix of narrow wins and a few more decisive results, such as FC Dallas's 3-1 and 2-0 victories. Notably, Austin's most recent win was a convincing 3-0 in June 2023, while FC Dallas's last win was a narrow 1-0 in May 2023. Overall, while FC Dallas has the edge historically, the matches have often been closely contested.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 46 | WWDLW |
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 39 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 37 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 35 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 34 | LLDWW |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWDLD |
| 14 | Austin | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 20 | WLLLW |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 20 | WDDLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAustin have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Dallas 1-2 and beat Puebla 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 8D 16L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Dallas have won 10 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC Dallas 1-2 and lost to Toluca 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 7L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAustin4-2-3-1Confirmed
FC Dallas3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersAustin2
FC Dallas6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Touchan has averaged 6.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Austin have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; FC Dallas 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Dallas have generated 1.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Dallas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
