New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
Match Preview
The model favours New York Red Bulls to win against Philadelphia Union, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 8th place, the Red Bulls have had a mixed season with 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, accumulating 25 points. Their goal difference stands at -10, indicating that while they have scored 29 goals, they have conceded 39. Recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, suggesting some inconsistency but a stronger overall performance compared to their opponents. Philadelphia Union, on the other hand, is struggling in 13th place with only 4 wins and 10 losses from 18 matches, totaling 16 points. Their goal tally of 25 against 33 conceded reflects their difficulties in both scoring and defending throughout the season. Despite a recent uptick in form with three wins in their last five matches, they still have a lot to improve to be competitive against teams like the Red Bulls. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for New York Red Bulls, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential pitfall for the Red Bulls could be their inconsistency, which may allow Philadelphia Union to capitalize if the Red Bulls are not at their best. For a detailed look at how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Philadelphia Union have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Philadelphia Union are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.90 | 3.95 | 2.12 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 3.04 | 3.78 | 2.09 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.36 | 2.84 | |
| 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.10 | 1.40 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.12 | 1.42 | 2.84 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
| 2.88 | 3.85 | 2.14 | 1.38 | 2.95 | 1.35 | 2.95 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.15 | 1.45 | 2.82 | 1.39 | 2.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Philadelphia Union leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union, Philadelphia Union has won 6 times, New York Red Bulls has won once, and 3 matches have ended in draws. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, with Philadelphia Union securing several victories, including a notable 4-1 win in September 2023. While New York Red Bulls managed a narrow 1-0 win in August 2025, the majority of the encounters have seen Philadelphia Union dominate, particularly in terms of scoring, with multiple matches featuring two or more goals in their favor. The Red Bulls' last victory against the Union was in 2025, highlighting a significant gap in recent success.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 40 | WLWDD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 17 | 26 | 49 | WWWDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 39 | LDLDW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 38 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 11 | 36 | DWWWL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 35 | DLLDW |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 26 | DLLWL |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 21 | DDWWW |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 21 | DWLLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York Red Bulls have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Chicago Fire 1-1 and lost to Nashville SC 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 15L from the last 30 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Philadelphia Union have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat New York City FC 2-3 and lost to Cruz Azul 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 15L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNew York Red Bulls
No reported absences
Philadelphia Union
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New York Red Bulls have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Philadelphia Union 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Philadelphia Union have generated 2.30 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Philadelphia Union player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
