Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toronto FC vs New York City FC
Match Preview
The model favours New York City FC to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Toronto FC. New York City FC currently sits in fifth place in the standings, with a record of seven wins, five draws, and six losses. Their goal difference of +7 indicates a stronger offensive and defensive performance compared to their opponents, and they have managed to score 31 goals while conceding 24 throughout the season. In contrast, Toronto FC is struggling in twelfth place with only three wins from 18 matches, alongside eight draws and seven losses. Their goal difference of -8 highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have allowed 32 goals while scoring just 24. Toronto's recent form has been particularly concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, which could further impact their confidence ahead of this fixture. The model outputs a win probability of around 55% for New York City FC, suggesting they are the likely winners in this matchup. However, a key caveat is that if Toronto FC can find a way to improve their form and capitalize on any defensive mistakes from New York City FC, they could make the match more competitive. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Toronto FC have been the stronger side, winning 29% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Toronto FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toronto FC vs New York City FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| 2.47 | 3.60 | 2.57 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.33 | 3.50 | 2.80 | 1.68 | 2.12 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 2.62 | 3.70 | 2.52 | 1.65 | 2.32 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 7-2)In the last ten matches between Toronto FC and New York City FC, New York City FC has won 7 times, Toronto FC has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. This record indicates a significant advantage for New York City FC. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests and more one-sided matches, with New York City FC achieving heavy victories, including a 5-0 win and a 3-0 win. Toronto FC has struggled to secure points, with their last victory against New York City FC occurring in April 2023, highlighting the challenges they face in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 40 | WLWDD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 17 | 26 | 49 | WWWDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 39 | LDLDW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 38 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 11 | 36 | DWWWL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 35 | DLLDW |
| 7 | New York City FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 27 | DLLDW |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 24 | WDWDL |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 21 | DWLLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToronto FC have won 7 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Charlotte 3-3 and beat New England Revolution 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 10D 10L from the last 28 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New York City FC have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to New York City FC 2-1 and lost to Cruz Azul 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 14L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersToronto FC
No reported absences
New York City FC
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Toronto FC have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; New York City FC 2.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toronto FC have generated 1.13 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 29% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toronto FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
