Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction, Tips & Odds
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29
Match Preview
The model favours a Stade Brestois 29 win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Auxerre currently sits in 18th place with no points from their first three matches, having lost all of them. Their goal difference of -7 indicates defensive struggles, conceding 11 goals while only managing to score four. The team's form reflects their challenges, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Stade Brestois 29 occupies 7th place with five points from three games, showcasing a solid start to the season. They remain unbeaten with one win and two draws, scoring six goals and conceding five, which suggests they have been competitive in their fixtures. Their recent form includes one win, three draws, and only one loss, indicating resilience and a capability to secure points even when not at their best. The model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 31.8% chance of winning, while Auxerre's win probability is at 39.8%. The projected score is 2-1, with a 50% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. One caveat is that if Auxerre manages to tighten their defence, they could potentially frustrate Brestois and secure a draw or a surprise win. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Stade Brestois 29 have been the stronger side, winning 25% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Stade Brestois 29 are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.85 | 3.62 | 2.40 | 1.77 | 2.07 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.91 | 3.52 | 2.46 | 1.81 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.66 | 3.18 | 2.27 | 1.76 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.93 | 3.72 | 2.47 | 1.83 | 2.14 | 1.60 | 2.22 | |
Betano | 2.87 | 3.40 | 2.45 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.72 | 1.96 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Stade Brestois 29 leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29, Stade Brestois has won 5 times, Auxerre has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins, including two 3-0 victories for Auxerre and a 2-0 win for Stade Brestois. However, there are also multiple instances of tight matches, such as the 2-2 draw and several 1-0 results. Auxerre's last win came in March 2026, suggesting that Stade Brestois has had the upper hand more recently.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | LWDD |
| 15 | Auxerre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | WLLL |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAuxerre have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Auxerre 1-3 and drew with Auxerre 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 11L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Stade Brestois 29 have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Stade Brestois 29 1-2 and drew with Le Mans 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 11D 10L from the last 28 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAuxerre
No reported absences
Stade Brestois 29
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Guillaume Paradis has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Guillaume Paradis to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Auxerre average 1.3 goals per match at home; Stade Brestois 29 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Stade Brestois 29 have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 25% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. Stade Brestois 29 player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
