Nice vs Lille Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nice vs Lille
Match Preview
The model favours Lille to win this match with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Currently sitting in fourth place, Lille has demonstrated strong early-season form, securing two wins and a draw from their first three matches. They have scored five goals while conceding only two, showcasing a solid goal difference of plus three. Their ability to find the net consistently, combined with a strong defensive record, makes them a formidable opponent. In contrast, Nice finds themselves in a challenging position at 15th in the standings, having yet to secure a win this season. With two draws and one loss from their three matches, they have struggled offensively, managing only one goal while conceding four. Their recent form indicates ongoing difficulties, with four draws and one loss in their last five matches, which highlights their inability to turn performances into victories. According to the model, Lille has a 48.1% chance of winning the match, while Nice's win probability stands at 24.1%. The projected score reflects a tight contest, with the likelihood of under 2.5 goals at 47.3% and both teams scoring at 51.2%. One caveat to consider is that if Nice can improve their attacking output, they could pose a greater threat than their current form suggests. The full method of this analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, employing an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Nice manage games at home, conceding just 1.21 goals per match. Lille score 1.39 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Lille have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Lille are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nice vs Lille| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.32 | 3.48 | 2.20 | 1.78 | 2.06 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.15 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.36 | 3.54 | 2.23 | 1.80 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 3.07 | 3.33 | 2.15 | 1.76 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.15 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.15 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.41 | 3.58 | 2.26 | 1.84 | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2.22 | |
Betano | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.18 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 1.71 | 1.98 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Nice leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Nice and Lille, Nice has won 4 times, Lille has won 2 times, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow and moderate victories. Notably, three of Nice's wins came with a margin of at least two goals, while Lille's victories have been tighter, with only one match featuring a significant margin. The most recent draw was a goalless affair, highlighting that both teams can be defensively solid against each other.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 | WLDLD |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 17 |  Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNice have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lille 2-1 and drew with Le Mans 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 14D 11L from the last 33 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lille have won 10 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nice 2-1 and beat Toulouse 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 9L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNice3-4-2-1Confirmed
Lille4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersNice4
Lille2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Willy Delajod has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nice have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Lille 1.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lille have generated 1.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lille player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
