Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje
Match Preview
The model favours Bayer Leverkusen to win against Celje, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Bayer Leverkusen enters this match with a strong form summary, having secured three wins in their last five matches. Despite starting the Europa League campaign with no points, their recent performances suggest they are capable of finding form quickly. Key statistics point to their attacking potential, which the model anticipates will translate into goals. On the other hand, Celje has shown mixed results lately, with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. While they sit higher in the standings, their overall form does not reflect consistent success, which could hinder their performance in this away fixture. The challenge of facing a team like Bayer Leverkusen, especially in an away match, may further complicate their efforts to secure a positive result. The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a win probability of 79.0%, with a projected score of 2-0 and a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 74.2%. However, a potential caveat is that if Celje can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Leverkusen, the match dynamics could shift. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season. This analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Bayer Leverkusen have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Bayer Leverkusen clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.18 | 6.80 | 12.50 | 1.28 | 3.65 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.07 | 13.50 | 28.00 | 1.16 | 4.45 | 2.03 | 1.70 | |
| 1.06 | 14.00 | 26.00 | 1.20 | 4.50 | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 1.08 | 14.26 | 28.87 | 1.17 | 4.94 | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 6.86 | 10.12 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.08 | 12.00 | 26.00 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.75 | |
| 1.06 | 12.00 | 26.00 | 1.20 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.08 | 14.70 | 30.00 | 1.16 | 4.45 | 2.03 | 1.72 | |
| 1.19 | 7.50 | 13.00 | 1.26 | 3.75 | 1.68 | 2.08 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 12.00 | 1.25 | 3.70 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 1.08 | 13.00 | 45.00 | 1.21 | 4.45 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
BetVictor | 1.05 | 13.00 | 26.00 | 1.15 | 4.80 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Bayer Leverkusen leads 1-0)Bayer Leverkusen leads the head-to-head record against Celje with 1 win and 0 draws. The only match between these teams ended in a narrow 1-0 victory for Bayer Leverkusen, indicating a tightly contested fixture. Celje has yet to secure a win in this matchup, and the close scoreline suggests that while Leverkusen emerged victorious, the game was competitive. This single encounter does not provide a comprehensive view, but it highlights Leverkusen's slight edge in their only meeting to date.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBayer Leverkusen have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat RB Leipzig 2-0 and beat Celje 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 7L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Celje have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Celje 0-0 and lost to Bayer Leverkusen 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 11L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBayer Leverkusen4-2-3-1Confirmed
Celje3-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersBayer Leverkusen8
Celje2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Vergoote has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Vergoote to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; Celje 2.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bayer Leverkusen have generated 1.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bayer Leverkusen player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
