Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction, Tips & Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win against Yunnan Yukun, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Beijing Guoan currently sits in fifth place in the league, having played 21 matches with a record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses. Their season has been marked by a solid goal difference of +11, scoring 38 goals while conceding 27. Notably, their recent form has been impressive, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a strong upward trajectory. On the other hand, Yunnan Yukun is positioned third in the standings, with 31 points from 22 matches, comprising 9 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses. While they have scored 43 goals, their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, as they have conceded 41, resulting in a modest goal difference of +2. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, suggesting inconsistency that could be a concern against a more stable opponent like Beijing Guoan. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Beijing Guoan, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their stronger recent form. However, there is a caveat: if Yunnan Yukun can leverage their attacking capabilities and exploit any defensive lapses from Beijing, they could pose a significant threat. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.0% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Beijing Guoan win as the most likely scoreline at 12.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.43 | 4.60 | 5.70 | 1.28 | 3.40 | 1.36 | 2.75 | |
| 1.45 | 4.85 | 5.45 | 1.22 | 3.50 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 1.25 | 3.80 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.50 | 5.16 | 5.47 | 1.27 | 3.85 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 4.43 | 4.68 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.48 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 1.28 | 3.60 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.49 | 5.00 | 5.61 | 1.22 | 3.50 | 1.35 | 2.94 | |
| 1.41 | 4.90 | 5.75 | 1.25 | 3.40 | 1.38 | 2.70 | |
| 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 3.60 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.70 | 5.30 | 1.27 | 3.40 | 1.38 | 2.82 |
Superbet | 1.47 | 4.80 | 5.00 | 1.27 | 3.40 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.80 | 5.25 | 1.25 | 3.70 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Beijing Guoan leads 3-0)Beijing Guoan has a strong head-to-head record against Yunnan Yukun, with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 4 encounters, while Yunnan Yukun has yet to secure a victory. The matches have featured a mix of scorelines, including one high-scoring draw at 3-3, and a dominant 7-0 win for Beijing Guoan in the FA Cup. This suggests that while there have been competitive moments, particularly in the close 2-1 and 3-3 matches, the overall trend leans heavily in favor of Beijing Guoan, indicating a notable disparity in performance between the two teams.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 51 | WLWLD |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 | DWDDW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 37 | DWDLW |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 36 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 35 | LDWWL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBeijing Guoan have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Yunnan Yukun 3-3 and drew with Shenyang Urban 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 8L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Yunnan Yukun have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Yunnan Yukun 3-3 and lost to Shandong Luneng 4-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 10D 10L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBeijing Guoan4-4-2Confirmed
Yunnan Yukun4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBeijing Guoan
No reported absences
Yunnan Yukun
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Beijing Guoan have averaged 6.8 corners per match at home; Yunnan Yukun 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 2.81 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 7.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.