Blackburn vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Tips & Odds
Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
Match Preview
The model favours Blackburn to win this match against Middlesbrough, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Blackburn starts the season strongly, currently positioned second in the standings. Although they have yet to play a match this season, their recent form is promising, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This suggests a competitive edge as they look to build momentum early in the Championship. On the other hand, Middlesbrough is positioned fifth and also has not yet played this season. However, their recent form is less encouraging, with only one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. This form indicates some struggles to secure consistent results, which could affect their confidence as they prepare for this matchup against a strong Blackburn side. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Blackburn. While we project a close game, the uncertainty lies in the teams' ability to translate last season's form into the current campaign. The full methodology behind this prediction, including the analysis of expected goals and actual results across the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis has been conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, employing an in-house model to evaluate the fixture comprehensively.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Blackburn manage games at home, conceding just 1.07 goals per match. Middlesbrough score 1.50 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Middlesbrough have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Middlesbrough are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Blackburn vs Middlesbrough| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.30 | 3.35 | 2.12 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.60 | 3.42 | 1.99 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 3.75 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 3.80 | 3.53 | 2.05 | 2.04 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 3.26 | 3.21 | 2.04 | 1.94 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.58 | 3.44 | 2.01 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 3.40 | 3.35 | 2.08 | 1.92 | 1.83 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
| 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 3.65 | 3.40 | 2.07 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
Superbet | 3.60 | 3.45 | 2.07 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.82 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Blackburn leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Blackburn and Middlesbrough, Blackburn has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Middlesbrough has won 2 matches. The scorelines indicate a fairly competitive rivalry, with three matches ending in 0-0 draws and several narrow victories. Blackburn has secured their wins with a single goal on multiple occasions, suggesting tight contests. Middlesbrough's last victory in this fixture came in April 2025, indicating they have struggled against Blackburn recently. Overall, while Blackburn has a stronger record, the matches tend to be closely contested.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 18 | Blackburn | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LLDLW |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBlackburn have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Blackburn 1-2 and lost to Blackburn 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 11L from the last 30 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Middlesbrough have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Middlesbrough 3-0 and beat QPR 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 9L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersBlackburn7
Middlesbrough5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
T. Reeves has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Blackburn have averaged 6.3 corners per match at home; Middlesbrough 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Middlesbrough have generated 2.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Middlesbrough player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
