Blackburn vs Millwall Prediction, Tips & Odds
Blackburn vs Millwall
Match Preview
The model favours Millwall to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 7th place, Millwall has made a stronger start to the season compared to Blackburn, accumulating 6 points from their first three matches, with two wins and one loss. Their attack appears to be slightly more potent, having scored 6 goals, while their goal difference of +1 indicates a solid defensive performance as well. On the other hand, Blackburn finds themselves in 10th position, having garnered only 4 points from their opening three fixtures. Their form has been inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. While they have managed to score 5 goals, their defensive record shows they have conceded the same number, resulting in a goal difference of 0. This lack of stability could hinder their chances against a more cohesive Millwall side. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Millwall, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that Blackburn, playing at home, could leverage their familiar surroundings to turn the tide in their favour. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, which utilizes expected goals and actual results data, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has carefully assessed these factors to derive our insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Blackburn manage games at home, conceding just 1.07 goals per match. Millwall score 1.41 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Millwall have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Millwall are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Blackburn vs Millwall| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.82 | 3.40 | 2.38 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.62 | 3.24 | 2.62 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.63 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.69 | 3.43 | 2.71 | 1.99 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 2.51 | 3.11 | 2.56 | 2.01 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.62 | 3.24 | 2.62 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.93 | 1.79 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.62 | 3.35 | 2.70 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.63 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Blackburn leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Blackburn and Millwall, Blackburn has won 6 times, with 3 draws and 1 victory for Millwall. The scorelines indicate a relatively dominant performance by Blackburn, particularly with several matches ending in their favor by multiple goals, such as a 4-1 win and a 2-0 win. Millwall's sole victory came in a narrow 1-0 match, highlighting their struggle to compete in this fixture. The presence of three draws suggests some competitive balance, but overall, Blackburn's consistent success in recent encounters points to a lopsided historical record.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Millwall | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 18 | Blackburn | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LLDLW |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBlackburn have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Blackburn 1-2 and lost to Blackburn 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 11L from the last 30 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Millwall have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Southampton 5-1 and beat Cambridge United 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 11L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
20 playersBlackburn7
Millwall13
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Blackburn have averaged 6.3 corners per match at home; Millwall 9.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Millwall have generated 2.02 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Millwall player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
