Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Tips & Odds
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
Match Preview
The model favours Borussia Dortmund to win this match against Hamburger SV, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Dortmund starts the season in a strong position, having secured the second spot in the league last season. Although they have yet to play this season, their recent form shows promise, with two wins in their last five matches. Key to their success will be their ability to convert chances, as they look to build on the previous campaign's performance. In contrast, Hamburger SV finds themselves in a challenging position, starting the season in 13th place after a mixed bag of results last season. Their recent form also reflects inconsistency, with two wins in their last five. For Hamburger, solidifying their defence will be crucial, as they look to improve on last season's performance and climb the standings. The model gives Borussia Dortmund a strong win probability, reflecting their historical strength and recent form. However, a potential caveat lies in the unpredictability of the opening match of the season; sometimes, teams can be caught off guard. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Borussia Dortmund have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Borussia Dortmund win as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Borussia Dortmund clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Borussia Dortmund are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.31 | 5.10 | 9.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.38 | 5.40 | 8.20 | 1.46 | 2.56 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.39 | 5.46 | 7.78 | 1.54 | 2.61 | — | — | |
| 1.29 | 4.94 | 6.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.36 | 5.50 | 7.00 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.40 | 5.48 | 8.30 | 1.46 | 2.56 | 1.71 | 2.04 | |
| 1.32 | 5.40 | 8.00 | 1.49 | 2.60 | 1.76 | 1.97 | |
| 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 5.40 | 7.50 | 1.53 | 2.57 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
Superbet | 1.40 | 5.30 | 7.00 | 1.52 | 2.55 | 1.75 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.25 | 8.00 | 1.47 | 2.45 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Borussia Dortmund leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV, Borussia Dortmund has won 6 times, Hamburger SV has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable record for Dortmund, with several matches featuring narrow victories, such as the 3-2 and 2-1 results. However, there have also been heavy wins for Dortmund, including a 5-2 victory. Hamburger SV's last win in this matchup came in 2015, highlighting a significant trend in Dortmund's favor over recent years. Overall, the head-to-head record shows a clear advantage for Borussia Dortmund.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 16 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBorussia Dortmund have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 and lost to Borussia Dortmund 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 2D 9L from the last 29 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hamburger SV have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Hamburger SV 2-0 and beat Verl 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 10L from the last 26 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBorussia Dortmund3-4-3Confirmed
Hamburger SV3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersBorussia Dortmund4
Hamburger SV3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Zwayer has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by F. Zwayer to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Borussia Dortmund average 2.0 goals per match at home; Hamburger SV 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Borussia Dortmund have generated 1.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Borussia Dortmund player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
