Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Tips & Odds
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Match Preview
The model favours Borussia Dortmund to win against SC Paderborn 07, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Dortmund currently sits in third place in the Bundesliga after securing a win in their opening match of the season, demonstrating strong form with two goals scored and none conceded. Their goal difference of +2 highlights their defensive solidity and attacking potential, which will be key as they aim to maintain momentum. In contrast, SC Paderborn 07 is positioned ninth after their first match, which ended in a draw. They have yet to score this season, and while they have shown resilience with a strong recent form of three wins and two draws from their last five matches, they will need to find a way to break through Dortmund's defence to secure points in this encounter. The model indicates a high win probability for Dortmund and projects a score of 2-0, with a key market percentage suggesting they are likely to win by at least a one-goal margin. However, a potential caveat is that if Paderborn can effectively disrupt Dortmund's attacking rhythm, they may manage to secure a surprise result. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Borussia Dortmund have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Borussia Dortmund win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Borussia Dortmund clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Borussia Dortmund are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.25 | 6.90 | 11.50 | 1.31 | 3.08 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.22 | 7.00 | 11.00 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.23 | 7.02 | 10.95 | 1.33 | 3.30 | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 5.99 | 8.68 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.22 | 7.00 | 10.00 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.27 | 7.01 | 11.60 | 1.31 | 3.08 | 1.71 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 1.27 | 6.70 | 11.25 | 1.37 | 3.10 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.20 | 7.00 | 11.50 | 1.34 | 2.91 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Borussia Dortmund leads 4-0)In the last seven matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07, Borussia Dortmund has won four times, with three matches ending in a draw, while SC Paderborn has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a tendency for high-scoring encounters, with Dortmund achieving notably heavy wins, including a 7-1 victory in 2015 and a 6-1 win in 2020. The presence of three draws suggests that Paderborn has been competitive at times, but they have not won any of the recent fixtures, indicating a challenging historical record against Dortmund.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 16 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBorussia Dortmund have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 and lost to Borussia Dortmund 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 2D 9L from the last 29 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
SC Paderborn 07 have won 4 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with FSV Mainz 05 0-0 and beat Phönix Lübeck 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 7D 3L from the last 18 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBorussia Dortmund3-4-2-1Confirmed
SC Paderborn 073-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBorussia Dortmund
No reported absences
SC Paderborn 07
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Borussia Dortmund average 2.0 goals per match at home; SC Paderborn 07 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Borussia Dortmund have generated 1.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Borussia Dortmund player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
