Bristol City vs Lincoln Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bristol City vs Lincoln
Match Preview
The model favours Bristol City to win against Lincoln, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bristol City currently sits in 19th position in the Championship, having played two matches this season without securing a victory. Their form has been concerning, with three draws and two losses in their last five matches. Despite this, they have managed to score two goals, although they have conceded four, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. Lincoln, on the other hand, is struggling at 22nd place with no points from their two matches, having lost both. Their goal difference of -3 highlights their defensive struggles, as they have conceded five goals while only finding the net twice. Their recent form shows two wins and three losses over their last five matches, which suggests they can be competitive, but they have yet to translate that into points this season. According to the model, Bristol City has a higher win probability given their home advantage and slightly better season performance so far. However, it is important to note that if Bristol City’s defensive issues persist, Lincoln could capitalize on any mistakes. The full method behind this prediction relies on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bristol City manage games at home, conceding just 1.34 goals per match. Lincoln score 1.35 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Bristol City have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bristol City clean sheets, in line with their 17% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Bristol City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bristol City vs Lincoln| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.84 | 3.44 | 4.15 | 1.98 | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.33 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 1.90 | 3.62 | 4.30 | 2.07 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 1.86 | 3.24 | 3.81 | 2.05 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.86 | 3.44 | 4.14 | 1.98 | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 3.60 | 4.15 | 2.05 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.20 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Lincoln leads 1-0)In their only historical meeting, Lincoln has won against Bristol City, with a record of 1 win and 0 draws. The match took place in the League Cup, where Lincoln secured a 3-1 victory. This scoreline indicates a relatively comfortable win for Lincoln, suggesting they were the stronger side on that occasion. Bristol City has not won against Lincoln in this head-to-head encounter, which may influence their approach in any future matchups.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 7 | Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 19 | Lincoln | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBristol City have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bristol City 2-1 and lost to Bristol City 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 11L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lincoln have won 7 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Lincoln 4-0 and beat Bolton 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 6L from the last 17 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBristol City4-2-3-1Confirmed
Lincoln4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBristol City
No reported absences
Lincoln
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
T. Robinson has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bristol City have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Lincoln 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bristol City have generated 1.02 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bristol City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
