Burnley vs Bristol City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Burnley vs Bristol City
Match Preview
The model favours Burnley to win against Bristol City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Burnley currently sits in 16th place in the Championship, having played one match this season. Their opening game ended in a draw, with two goals scored and two conceded. The team has struggled for wins recently, with their last five matches resulting in three draws and two losses, indicating a need to turn their performances into victories. Bristol City, on the other hand, is in 19th place after two matches, still searching for their first win of the season. They have managed one draw and one loss, scoring two goals but conceding four. Their recent form mirrors Burnley's with three draws and two losses in their last five matches, highlighting a similar struggle to find winning form. The model output suggests Burnley has a higher win probability, and the projected score reflects their slight edge at home. However, the caveat is that both teams have shown difficulty in securing wins, which could lead to another draw if Burnley fails to capitalize on home advantage. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season to derive these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Burnley have been the stronger side, winning 6% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Burnley clean sheets, in line with their 6% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Burnley are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Burnley vs Bristol City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.95 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.93 | 3.55 | 3.68 | 1.85 | 1.92 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.01 | 3.75 | 3.69 | 1.90 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 1.89 | 3.13 | 3.32 | 1.80 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.94 | 3.56 | 3.69 | 1.85 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
| 1.81 | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.81 | 1.94 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.05 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Burnley leads 9-0)The head-to-head record between Burnley and Bristol City shows Burnley winning 9 times, with 1 draw and Bristol City not winning any of the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Burnley, with several narrow victories, such as 1-0 and 2-1, but also a heavy win of 4-0. Bristol City has not won against Burnley since their last victory in this matchup, which has not occurred in the last 10 encounters, emphasizing Burnley's strong hold over the fixture.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 7 | Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 | Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBurnley have won 1 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bristol City 1-2 and drew with Middlesbrough 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 11D 18L from the last 31 games (6% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Bristol City have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bristol City 1-2 and beat Preston 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 11L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBurnley4-2-3-1Confirmed
Bristol City4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersBurnley9
Bristol City3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Ward has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Burnley have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Bristol City 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Burnley have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 6% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Burnley player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
