Burnley vs Derby Prediction, Tips & Odds
Burnley vs Derby
Match Preview
The model favours Derby to win this match against Burnley, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Derby currently sits in 20th position in the Championship, having secured 4 points from their first five matches. Their season has been a mixed bag, with one win, one draw, and three losses. Notably, they have scored 5 goals while conceding 10, which gives them a goal difference of -5. Burnley, however, is struggling at the bottom of the table, occupying 24th place with only 2 points from 5 matches. Their season has been disappointing, with no wins and two draws, leading to three losses. They have scored 6 goals but have also conceded 12, resulting in a goal difference of -6. Their recent form reflects their struggles, with five matches yielding no victories. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Derby, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage shows Derby as the likely favourite in betting odds. However, a potential caveat is Burnley's ability to turn their form around at home, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Burnley have been the stronger side, winning 6% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Burnley clean sheets, in line with their 6% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Burnley are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Burnley vs Derby| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.80 | 3.62 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 1.94 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 1.87 | 3.77 | 4.26 | 1.86 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.79 | 3.19 | 3.64 | 1.87 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.82 | 3.62 | 4.08 | 1.80 | 1.94 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 3.85 | 4.35 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.10 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Burnley leads 6-0)In the last 10 matches between Burnley and Derby, Burnley has won 6 times, with 4 matches ending in draws, while Derby has not won any. The scorelines indicate a relatively dominant performance by Burnley, with several narrow victories such as 2-1 and 2-0, alongside a heavier win of 4-1. The frequent draws suggest that Derby has managed to hold Burnley to stalemates, but they have not secured a win in this period. The last match Derby won against Burnley was not within this sample, highlighting a significant challenge for them historically.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 22 | Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 | Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBurnley have won 1 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bristol City 1-2 and drew with Middlesbrough 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 11D 18L from the last 31 games (6% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Derby have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Derby 3-0 and beat Portsmouth 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 3D 14L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBurnley4-4-2Confirmed
Derby4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBurnley
No reported absences
Derby
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Steve Martin has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Steve Martin to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Burnley have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Derby 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Burnley have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 6% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Burnley player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
