Cardiff vs Stoke City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cardiff vs Stoke City
Match Preview
The model favours Cardiff City to win against Stoke City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Cardiff currently sits in 12th place in the Championship standings, having played two matches so far this season. They have yet to secure a victory, recording two draws, but they have shown a balanced attack and defence, scoring three goals and conceding three. Their recent form, with two wins in their last five matches, indicates a team capable of competing effectively. In contrast, Stoke City finds itself struggling in 21st place, having lost both of their opening games without earning a point. Their goal difference of -3 highlights defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded five goals while managing to score only two. Their recent form, which includes just one win in their last five matches, suggests that they are facing challenges in both scoring and maintaining defensive solidity. The model output gives Cardiff a win probability of approximately 65%, while Stoke's chances sit at around 20%. One key market percentage indicates a 55% likelihood of Cardiff winning by at least a one-goal margin. However, a potential caveat for Cardiff is the risk of complacency, as they have not yet secured a win this season. For a detailed breakdown of how these predictions were formed, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Cardiff have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Cardiff are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cardiff vs Stoke City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.06 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 2.00 | 3.72 | 3.30 | 1.61 | 2.27 | 1.52 | 2.33 | |
| 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.11 | 3.68 | 3.46 | 1.65 | 2.34 | — | — | |
| 2.06 | 3.36 | 3.05 | 1.64 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.02 | 3.72 | 3.30 | 1.61 | 2.27 | 1.52 | 2.37 | |
| 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.35 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.52 | 2.38 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.07 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Superbet | 2.07 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.63 | 2.30 | 1.54 | 2.37 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cardiff leads 2-1)The head-to-head record between Cardiff and Stoke City over the last 10 matches shows Cardiff winning 2 times, drawing 7, and Stoke City winning once. This record indicates a strong tendency for closely contested matches, highlighted by the frequent draws, including four matches ending in ties. The scorelines suggest that when a winner has emerged, the margins have been narrow, with only one match featuring a victory by more than a single goal. Stoke City's last win against Cardiff was in April 2025, emphasizing a prolonged stretch of competitive fixtures without significant dominance from either side.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 15 | Stoke City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | DWWLL |
| 20 | Cardiff | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | DLLDD |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCardiff have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Cardiff 2-2 and lost to Cardiff 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 5L from the last 16 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Stoke City have won 0 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Wolves 4-1 and lost to Southampton 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 8D 14L from the last 29 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCardiff4-2-3-1Confirmed
Stoke City3-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersCardiff3
Stoke City8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Cardiff have averaged 6.8 corners per match at home; Stoke City 2.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cardiff have generated 1.99 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cardiff player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
