Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander Prediction, Tips & Odds
Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
Match Preview
The model favours Racing Santander to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Celta Vigo. Santander currently sits in 12th place in the standings, having secured 4 points from their first four matches. Their attack has shown promise, scoring 7 goals, which is significantly higher than Celta’s solitary goal this season. With a recent form of one win, two draws, and two losses, Santander is finding ways to compete, even if their defence has leaked 8 goals. Celta Vigo, on the other hand, finds themselves in a precarious 17th position with only 2 points from 4 matches. Their lack of offensive output is concerning, scoring just once while conceding 4. The team has struggled to convert their chances, which is reflected in their last five matches, where they’ve recorded no wins, three draws, and two losses. This lack of scoring could hinder their ability to turn matches in their favour. The model outputs a win probability of around 45% for Racing Santander, suggesting a tight contest. While Santander has the edge based on their goal-scoring ability, Celta Vigo could surprise if they manage to find their scoring touch. An honest caveat is that if Celta’s defence can hold firm and they capitalize on any set pieces, the match could swing in their favour. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Celta Vigo have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Celta Vigo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.79 | 3.88 | 4.40 | 1.75 | 2.10 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 1.83 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.82 | 3.85 | 4.55 | 1.76 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.81 | 3.42 | 3.55 | 1.64 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.84 | 3.98 | 4.52 | 1.79 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 1.82 | 3.85 | 4.15 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.33 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Celta Vigo leads 1-0)Celta Vigo and Racing Santander have faced each other once, with Celta Vigo winning that match 3-2 in the Copa del Rey. The scoreline indicates a competitive encounter, with both teams scoring multiple goals, but ultimately it resulted in a narrow victory for Celta Vigo. Since this is the only recorded fixture between the two, there is no trend to analyze regarding draw frequency or patterns in scoring. Racing Santander has not yet secured a win against Celta Vigo in their head-to-head history.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 |  Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 16 | Celta Vigo | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | DDDLL |
| 18 |  Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCelta Vigo have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Malaga 1-1 and lost to Athletic Club 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 13D 12L from the last 36 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Racing Santander have won 1 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rayo Vallecano 3-2 and lost to Getafe 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 5L from the last 16 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCelta Vigo3-4-3Confirmed
Racing Santander4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCelta Vigo
No reported absences
Racing Santander
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Celta Vigo have averaged 2.5 corners per match at home; Racing Santander 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Celta Vigo have generated 0.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Celta Vigo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
