Charlton vs Portsmouth Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charlton vs Portsmouth
Match Preview
The model favours Charlton to win against Portsmouth, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Charlton currently sits at the top of the Championship table after winning all three of their opening matches, which reflects a strong start to the season. They have scored five goals while conceding just two, resulting in a healthy goal difference of three. Their recent form is also impressive, with four wins in their last five matches, indicating a team in good shape. On the other hand, Portsmouth has struggled, positioned 15th in the league with just one win from three matches. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, as they have recorded one win, two losses, and one draw in their last five outings, with a goal difference of -1. Although they have found the net five times, their defensive vulnerabilities may hinder their ability to compete effectively against a high-flying Charlton side. The model suggests a win probability of 60% for Charlton, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that if Portsmouth can shore up their defence and take advantage of any mistakes, they could pose a challenge. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates the fixture through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Charlton manage games at home, conceding just 1.33 goals per match. Portsmouth score 1.20 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.6% probability.
Charlton have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Charlton are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charlton vs Portsmouth| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.58 | 3.15 | 2.74 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.90 | 1.85 | |
| 2.68 | 3.10 | 2.66 | 2.14 | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.77 | 3.25 | 2.74 | 2.22 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 2.56 | 3.05 | 2.56 | 2.19 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 2.68 | 3.12 | 2.65 | 2.14 | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 2.48 | 3.15 | 2.85 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 1.87 | 1.84 | |
| 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.63 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.75 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.63 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Charlton leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth stands at 4 wins for Charlton, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Portsmouth over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including three draws and a mix of narrow and more decisive victories. Notably, both teams have had periods of dominance, with Charlton winning by margins of 3-0 and 3-1, while Portsmouth has also secured a notable 3-1 win. The last time Portsmouth emerged victorious was in February 2021, suggesting a competitive but fluctuating dynamic between these teams.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 | Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharlton have won 4 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Charlton 1-0 and beat Charlton 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 11L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Portsmouth have won 6 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Bristol City 2-1 and beat Lincoln 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 13L from the last 30 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCharlton4-2-3-1Confirmed
Portsmouth4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
15 playersCharlton8
Portsmouth7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Charlton have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Portsmouth 7.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charlton have generated 0.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Charlton player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
