Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Match Preview
The model favours Chelsea to win against Bournemouth, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Chelsea currently sits in 10th place in the Premier League standings, having accumulated 7 points from their first five matches. Their season has been mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses. Notably, they have scored 10 goals but conceded 12, highlighting a need for improvement in defence. However, their recent form shows a positive trend, with two wins in their last three matches. On the other hand, Bournemouth is struggling in 17th position with just 3 points from five games, yet they have shown some resilience by securing three draws. Their lack of wins (0W 3D 2L) indicates a struggle to convert opportunities into results. They have scored 6 goals but have also conceded 8, which reflects their challenges in both attack and defence this season. According to the model, Chelsea has a 53% win probability, while Bournemouth's chances stand at 23.7%. The projected score is 2-1, with a notable 65.5% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. One caveat is that Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities could allow Bournemouth to find the net, impacting the outcome. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, and it is based on an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Chelsea have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Chelsea win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Chelsea are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chelsea vs Bournemouth| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.74 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 1.44 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.49 | |
| 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 1.73 | 4.15 | 4.61 | 1.51 | 2.59 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.78 | 3.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.79 | 4.26 | 4.52 | 1.44 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.53 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 4.05 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.33 | 1.46 | 2.47 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chelsea leads 5-0)In the last 10 matches between Chelsea and Bournemouth, Chelsea has won 5 times, with 4 matches ending in draws and Bournemouth failing to secure a win. The scorelines indicate a competitive nature, with several matches ending in draws, including two 2-2 results. Chelsea has achieved narrow victories, such as 1-0 and 2-1, but also recorded more decisive wins like 3-1 and 2-0. Bournemouth's inability to win in this series is notable, as they have not triumphed over Chelsea in their last 10 encounters.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 5 |  Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | DWDDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 9 | WDWDD |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | LDDDL |
| 18 |  Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChelsea have won 10 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Chelsea 2-2 and beat Chelsea 6-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 5D 15L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bournemouth have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Real Sociedad 1-2 and lost to Manchester City 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 14D 3L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersChelsea
No reported absences
Bournemouth
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Chelsea average 2.0 goals per match at home; Bournemouth 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Chelsea have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 44% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Chelsea player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
