Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla Prediction, Tips & Odds
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Match Preview
The model favours Deportivo La Coruna to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 5th place, Deportivo has started the season strongly with two wins and two draws from their first four matches, accumulating 8 points. Their offensive output has been solid, scoring 8 goals while conceding 5, resulting in a goal difference of 3. This balance between attack and defence has been key to their positive start. Sevilla, in 7th place, has also shown promise with two wins, one draw, and one loss, totaling 7 points. However, their recent form indicates some inconsistency, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. They have scored 7 goals but have conceded 6, leading to a narrower goal difference of 1. This slight vulnerability at the back could be a concern against a well-organised Deportivo side. The model gives Deportivo a win probability of approximately 55%, while Sevilla's chances sit around 30%. One key market percentage to note is Deportivo's home advantage, which often plays a significant role in their performance at Estadio Municipal de Riazor. However, if Sevilla can find their rhythm and tighten their defence, they could pose a significant threat. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Deportivo La Coruna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of matches. Sevilla average 1.1 goals per game.
Deportivo La Coruna manage games at home, conceding just 0.82 goals per match. Sevilla score 1.12 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.8% probability.
Deportivo La Coruna have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Deportivo La Coruna are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.60 | 3.08 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 1.69 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
| 2.63 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.68 | 3.03 | 3.08 | 2.30 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 2.36 | 2.90 | 2.75 | 2.31 | 1.62 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.91 | |
| 2.62 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.67 | 3.14 | 3.10 | 2.28 | 1.73 | 1.85 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.88 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sevilla leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla, Deportivo has not secured a win, with the record standing at 0 victories for Deportivo, 3 draws, and 7 wins for Sevilla. This indicates a significant advantage for Sevilla, particularly highlighted by several decisive victories, including a 4-2 and a 4-1 win. The matches have featured a mix of close contests and wider margins, with three matches ending in draws, suggesting some competitive balance. Deportivo has not triumphed over Sevilla since 2012, indicating a prolonged struggle against this opponent.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 |  Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | DWWDD |
| 18 |  Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDeportivo La Coruna have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 and lost to Deportivo La Coruna 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 2L from the last 17 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sevilla have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Espanyol 1-1 and beat Athletic Club 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 13L from the last 33 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
4 playersDeportivo La Coruna2
Sevilla2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Deportivo La Coruna have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Sevilla 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Deportivo La Coruna have generated 1.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Deportivo La Coruna player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
