Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia
Match Preview
The model favours Valencia to win against Deportivo La Coruna, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Valencia starts the season in a stronger position, having finished 11th last season. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they aim to improve upon last year's performance. Deportivo La Coruna, on the other hand, begins this season in 16th place and has not yet played any matches. Their recent form of two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last five suggests some potential, but it remains to be seen how they will adapt to the new campaign. Without any competitive matches this season, it is difficult to predict how they will fare against a more established opponent like Valencia. According to the model, Valencia has a higher win probability, and they are expected to take the three points. However, a potential caveat is that if Deportivo La Coruna can leverage home advantage effectively, they might surprise Valencia. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model uses expected goals and actual results to analyze fixtures. The Daily Punt Analysis Team emphasizes these statistics to provide an informed perspective.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Deportivo La Coruna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of matches. Valencia average 1.3 goals per game.
Deportivo La Coruna manage games at home, conceding just 0.82 goals per match. Valencia score 1.28 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.2% probability.
Deportivo La Coruna have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Deportivo La Coruna are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.48 | 2.98 | 3.00 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.77 | |
| 2.65 | 3.04 | 3.08 | 2.49 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.72 | |
| 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.66 | 2.99 | 3.15 | 2.61 | 1.53 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 2.94 | 2.84 | 2.44 | 1.57 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.75 | |
| 2.62 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.62 | 1.50 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.69 | 3.08 | 3.12 | 2.57 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.74 | |
| 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.38 | 1.56 | 1.93 | 1.79 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Superbet | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.55 | 1.52 | 2.07 | 1.73 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.34 | 1.51 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Valencia leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Deportivo La Coruna and Valencia, Valencia has a slight edge with 5 wins, while Deportivo La Coruna has won once and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and one-sided games, with Valencia achieving three victories by at least two goals, including a 3-0 win. The presence of four draws suggests that matches can be closely contested, but Deportivo La Coruna's last win against Valencia dates back to 2014, indicating a trend in favor of Valencia in recent encounters.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 |  Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | DWWDD |
| 17 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 | WLLLL |
| 18 |  Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDeportivo La Coruna have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 and lost to Deportivo La Coruna 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 2L from the last 17 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Valencia have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 and drew with Stoke City 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 15L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersDeportivo La Coruna2
Valencia7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Deportivo La Coruna have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Valencia 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Deportivo La Coruna have generated 1.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Deportivo La Coruna player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
