Derby vs Cardiff Prediction, Tips & Odds
Derby vs Cardiff
Match Preview
The model favours Derby to win against Cardiff, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Derby enters the new season with a solid reputation, having positioned themselves in the top four last season. Although they have yet to play any matches this season, their recent form shows a mixed bag with only one win in their last five matches. However, they will look to leverage their home advantage at Pride Park, where they historically perform well. On the other hand, Cardiff arrives with momentum from last season, finishing with a strong record, including four wins in their last five matches. This winning form could provide them with the confidence needed to challenge Derby, but the lack of recent competitive matches might disrupt their rhythm as they start a new campaign. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Derby, while Cardiff sits at 20%. One key market percentage to note is that Derby has a 45% chance of winning by a one-goal margin. However, an honest caveat is that if Derby's recent form carries over into the new season, they could struggle to find their footing early on. For a detailed explanation of our methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Derby have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Derby clean sheets, in line with their 27% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Derby are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Derby vs Cardiff| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 3.55 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.90 | |
| 1.98 | 3.52 | 3.54 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.07 | 3.59 | 3.67 | 1.90 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.04 | 3.23 | 3.25 | 1.88 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.00 | 3.52 | 3.54 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
| 1.96 | 3.35 | 3.75 | 1.89 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 2.07 | 3.45 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 2.07 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cardiff leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Derby and Cardiff, Cardiff has won 5 times, Derby has won 2 matches, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with Cardiff often emerging victorious in tight contests; four of their five wins were by a single goal. Notably, Derby's last win against Cardiff came in September 2024, while Cardiff's recent dominance includes a heavy 4-0 victory in March 2021. The majority of matches have been low-scoring, as evidenced by the frequent single-goal margins and draws.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 20 | Cardiff | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | DLLDD |
| 22 | Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDerby have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Derby 0-3 and drew with Derby 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 3D 14L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Cardiff have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Cardiff 2-0 and lost to QPR 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 5L from the last 16 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDerby4-2-3-1Confirmed
Cardiff4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersDerby4
Cardiff4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Ricardo has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Derby have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Cardiff 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Derby have generated 0.96 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Derby player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
